ENGLAND TO MAKE IT PAST THE GROUP STAGE? I WOULDN’T BET ON IT, SAYS RIO
I hope Hodgson’s faith in kids pays off, but I know from bitter experience England turn up for big events physically in pieces
AS a former England captain and big England fan there is nothing I would love more than to see Roy Hodgson’s team reach a quarter-final showdown with World Cup hosts Brazil. What a tantalising prospect, facing Brazil on their own turf, in the spiritual home of the beautiful game, in a last-eight match that could feasibly happen on July 4 in Fortaleza.
But if I was a betting man I would not risk money on England getting out of Group D, let alone making it within sight of the semi-finals.
I’m not damning their chances completely. But let’s have a bit of realism and accept that there are three teams in the section who have a shot at progressing — and three into two doesn’t go.
I expect Italy to win the group. They have vast experience in their ranks. They’ve got players who have won a World Cup, with Gianluigi Buffon, Andrea Pirlo and Daniele de Rossi among them.
They have big-stage temperament and high-class individuals, from Pirlo to Mario Balotelli. They’re well organised, always, and England could definitely have had an easier start than a rumble in the jungle in Manaus with the Azzurri.
A point at least from the opening game is a minimum requirement for England, in my view, or an early exit will beckon. And a point is no gimme.
So England will almost certainly need to get the better of Uruguay. That can happen, of course it can. It wouldn’t surprise me if both sides find the net in that second group game, especially if England have had a positive start. But is it feasible England could be beaten by one or both of Italy and Uruguay? Absolutely.
I hope that does not happen but there are gruelling fixtures ahead, mentally and physically, and we can be our own worst enemy as a country in terms of how we prepare for these tournaments.
The Premier League is brilliant; excitement every week, fantastically popular. But it lets England down as a national team because there is no winter break.
We turn up for World Cups already disadvantaged because so many players are injured, bandaged up, drained. And that’s before a ball is kicked.
I’m talking now as somebody who has seen this and lived it. We all play with knocks at times. We all play fatigued on occasions. No big deal. No problem. It’s part and parcel of our profession.
But from inside experience of having been an England player at two World Cups, in 2002 and 2006, playing five matches at each, we ended the group stages physically knackered, gone — before the knockout stage even started.
Fitness is a huge factor in your performance and undervalued far too often. Heavy legs and weary bodies are a real issue when the turnover of games is so quick.
No doubt some people will say, hang on, what about all the foreign players who play in the Premier League and manage to shine? Yes, some do. Carlos Tevez famously went back and forward to Argentina and did the business. Oscar, to name one Brazilian example, plays a heap of games for club and country.
But exceptional people being capable of exceptional feats does not get away from the fact that, as a group, England’s players have a uniquely long, hard, unbroken domestic season. Germany have fewer games because their Bundesliga is only 18 teams, and they have a winter break. Spain and Italy: lower tempo leagues and winter breaks. France? Winter break and arguably less intensity than England, where the pace and grinding physical demands do stack up.
This is not an excuse. But I’m telling you from someone who knows that it is one contributory factor and, at elite level, margins matter. We’re going out there with Band-Aids before we get started. On a more upbeat note, the youth and vibrancy of the squad excite me. I was a kid myself, aged 19, when Glenn Hoddle took me to the 1998 World Cup, though I didn’t play.
If England are to deliver, though, the tournament has to start well and that, for me, will entail stopping Pirlo’s magic. How? I recall one Champions League game against Milan for Manchester United at San Siro in 2010 when Sir Alex Ferguson put Ji-sung Park on Pirlo. He man-marked him out of the game.
Pirlo would typically make up to 90 of his incisive passes per match. That night he was limited to 32. We joked later that Park did such a superb job that when Pirlo woke up the next morning, Ji-sung was at the foot of his bed!
Balotelli is also a huge talent but Pirlo is consistently brilliant and if England stop him — unlike at Euro 2012 — then that’s a start. In my ideal XI, I’d hand Danny Welbeck that task.
And Wayne Rooney should play No 9, up front and centre, and allowed to play to his strengths. I’d choose Daniel Sturridge and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (or Adam Lallana if the Ox doesn’t make it) alongside Danny in midfield with Stevie Gerrard and Jordan Henderson sitting in front of a defence that picks itself: Joe Hart plus Glen Johnson, Phil Jagielka, Gary Cahill and Leighton Baines.
Getting something from Italy could be the platform to progress, perhaps a second-round match against Colombia or the Ivory Coast. Then maybe that quarter-final.
That would be a dream scenario. Over to Roy now. He’s had the courage to select a raw, young squad. Now I hope he gives them a chance to play — and takes off the shackles. Fortune favours the brave.