NICE TRY NICOLA:

FIRST Minister Nicola Sturgeon was at her most confident and focused. This was a woman on a mission and few would have doubted her determination to achieve her goal. As news sank in on Friday morning that the UK, as a whole, had voted to leave the European Union while Scotland had wanted to remain, the SNP leader stood at a lectern in Bute House, her official residence in Edinburgh.

Lest anyone was in any doubt about her feelings at the result, Miss Sturgeon was flanked by two flags. On one side was the blue and white of the Saltire, on the other the blue and yellow of the EU. Before she had even opened her mouth to speak, the First Minister had shown where her loyalties lie.

Last year, as the UK’s political classes focused their attention on the EU referendum, the SNP began spinning a line about the implications of the outcome which came to pass in the early hours of Friday. Miss Sturgeon, Alex Salmond and other senior figures in the party explained that should the UK take Scotland out of the European club against its will, there would be a second independence referendum. So enraged would Scots be by this state of affairs they would vote Yes. Consumed by pro-European feelings, those who had rejected separation over concerns on currency and the economy, and who felt strongly they were British as well as Scottish, would see the Nationalist light.

So, on Friday, Miss Sturgeon said a second independence referendum was back on the table. The fully democratic result produced by Thursday’s entirely democratic vote was, she said, ‘democratically unacceptable’.

The First Minister made a second attempt to break up the UK seem a perfectly straightforward matter. But it really isn’t.

The SNP’s line about Scotland being taken out of the EU against its will was, in fact, designed only to keep the party’s faithful on their toes. After defeat in the 2014 referendum, the SNP was swamped by new members, the vast majority of whom were – and remain – driven by a desire to have a second referendum as soon as possible.

With their Still Yes banners and unshakeable belief in the need for Scotland to go it alone, those new members needed to believe that defeat was merely a bump in the road on the way to independence. The promise about Scotland being removed from the EU against the wishes of the people was a useful way of sustaining their enthusiasm.

HERE’S the thing, though: Miss Sturgeon did not believe that the UK would vote to leave the EU. No senior politician on the Remain side of the argument did. A number of SNP insiders pointed out to me privately that the circumstances the First Minister described would be far from ideal for a second Yes campaign. Turmoil, negativity, and uncertainty would be an unappealing backdrop to a campaign that demanded positivity.

But Miss Sturgeon’s hypothetical result is now reality and she finds herself in the position of having to make good on her promise.

The most significant part of her statement on Friday was her pledge to seek direct discussions with EU institutions, member states and – at the earliest opportunity – the President of the European Commission.

During 2014’s referendum campaign, Mr Salmond insisted an independent Scotland would enjoy continued membership of the EU on the basis that the UK was already a member. The former First Minister went so far as to say he had received legal advice to this effect. No such legal advice existed. Mr Salmond was, let’s be charitable, mistaken.

Miss Sturgeon, a lawyer by trade, is not reckless like Mr Salmond. She will wish to ensure she has a clear, navigable path to EU membership for Scotland.

One strategist suggests she will want to persuade EU member states that an independent Scotland should be granted continuity membership in the event of a Yes vote in a second independence referendum. This would certainly smooth out some troublesome wrinkles – but the chances of such a deal being struck are slender. Some member states – not least Spain, where Catalan separatists continue to campaign for independence – would surely baulk at the idea of making life easy for a nationalist project.

Perhaps the best Miss Sturgeon might hope for are some clear EU voices welcoming the prospect of an independent Scotland joining. But that would still leave her to deal with the small print.

In 2014, the Nationalists were adamant that Scotland after a Yes vote would enter into a currency union with the rest of the UK. This flew in face of both the facts (how could an independent Scotland expect the Bank of England to be its lender of last resort?) and the realpolitik (how could English MPs convince their constituents they should support Scotland’s economic framework after Scotland had told England it was off?).

Now the idea of currency union is dead. That would mean an independent Scotland having to adopt the euro. Some Nationalists might argue for an independent Scottish currency, but that is a non-starter. The EU would demand euro membership as a condition of Scotland joining.

Miss Sturgeon will have no choice but to bite the bullet and argue a pro-euro position. Cautious, ‘small c’ conservative voters – whose belief in the competence of the SNP has helped the party secure a trio of Holyrood election victories – may take some persuading to give up the pound.

There is another significant hurdle in Miss Sturgeon’s path. A key figure in the campaign for the UK to remain in the EU, and who previously worked alongside those arguing for Scottish independence, points out that the majority of people feel little emotional connection to the EU in the way that they do to the idea of Scottishness or Britishness.

In 2014, many who voted No did not do so on the basis that Yes Scotland lacked answers but because British identity was a central part of who they are. There is nothing, yet, to say those voters feel any different after Thursday’s Brexit vote.

Miss Sturgeon was at her confident, polished best on Friday morning. But the truth is she has boxed herself in. The First Minister dangled in front of her supporters a second independence referendum she never thought she would have to deliver.

Now she will have to keep her word, with a still slim chance of victory. If she loses, her party may be damaged for generations.