HAMISH MACDONELL:

WHILE most politicians start to take stock after the most intense period of politics for several generations, Nicola Sturgeon faces the hardest decision of all: Should she call a fresh independence referendum?

Here are five reasons why she will want to call a fresh poll – followed by five reasons why she won’t. Only the First Minister will know which is the more compelling argument.

FOR INDYREF2:

PROJECT FEAR IS DEAD:

Better Together came up with the original ‘Project Fear’. Its entire strategy was based around scaring people about the perils of independence.

During the Brexit referendum campaign, the Remain side tried the same tactics and failed. That will signal the end for all Project Fear campaigns for the future.

Voters will not buy it any more. Fear will not work again, which means Unionists will have to come up with something new – and that will play into Miss Sturgeon’s hands.

BETTER TOGETHER IS NO MORE:

The 2014 independence campaign was won by a crossparty alliance of Labour, the Lib Dems and the Conservatives. But that unity has collapsed.

Labour will never enter another alliance with the Tories but also, neither Labour, nor the Lib Dems actually know whether they will back the Union. This just leaves the Conservatives and Ukip holding the line – a tall order when trying to counter the pro-indy parties ranged against them.

PRO-EUROPEANS WILL NOW BACK INDEPENDENCE:

In 2014, the choice was stark: inside the UK and inside the EU versus outside the UK and probably outside the EU too.

Now the ground has shifted and the choice is very different: it is a straight choice between the UK and the EU. This will make it much more difficult for pro-Europeans to back the Union. A large number may feel it is more important to be in the EU than the UK and may now support independence.

THERE CAN’T BE ANOTHER ‘VOW’:

Alex Salmond has always believed – mistakenly – that victory was ripped from him in 2014 by The Vow: the commitment made by the three main UK party leaders on the eve of the vote to deliver more devolution for Scotland. That Vow has now been delivered and it is difficult to see how any UK government could promise any more devolution in the future, given that the Scottish parliament is now awash with new powers. As a result, this sort of last-minute concession is another weapon that has been stripped from the Unionists’ armoury.

BREXIT HAS MADE SCOTS FEEL DIFFERENTLY ABOUT ENGLAND:

England’s decision to back Brexit while Scotland supported the EU has placed a large psychological barrier between the two countries. Scots now feel as if they have different values and have a different political outlook – whether or not this is actually true. But this has nevertheless broken one of the key bonds between the countries, the feeling that we are all the same, wherever we live. That one single change could prove crucial in pushing waverers towards independence.

AGAINST INDYREF2: THE CURRENCY:

This was the SNP’s biggest weakness in 2014 and it is, if anything, even more of a liability now. The Nationalists’ idea that an independent Scotland could share the pound after independence is now dead. Instead, the SNP looks likely to argue for a new Scottish currency pegged to the pound. This is a shaky and difficult option to base an entire economy on, particularly one still heavily reliant on trade with England.

THE BORDER:

If Scotland breaks from England and joins the EU, then the Tweed will mark a ‘hard’ border between the EU and England. This will mean border guards, customs posts and barbed wire fences. This alarming prospect will bring home the true reality of independence and will deter many people, particularly those in the Borders, from voting for it.

TRADE:

Miss Sturgeon’s prospectus for independence will be extremely vulnerable on the simple issue of trade. The UK is Scotland’s biggest market. Opponents will ask whether it makes any sense to leave our biggest market just to join our second biggest market, the EU. For businesses all over the country, this will be a compelling argument in favour of sticking with the UK.

OIL:

Remember when the oil price was $110 a barrel? That was the price when the SNP promised it would deliver £7.5 billion a year into Scottish coffers. Now, with the oil price less than half that, Scotland can expect to earn only £130 million a year from the one industry which was supposed to support the whole Scottish economy.

THIS IS HER LAST CHANCE:

Miss Sturgeon will be very aware that this is it, the SNP’s last chance to call a referendum on independence. If she loses, the issue really will be dead and buried for at least a generation but probably longer than that. She cannot afford to lose a second vote, which is why she is being extraordinarily cautious.

Oddly, this means she will go into a fresh campaign with almost more to lose than the Unionists. That will make Miss Sturgeon – a naturally cautious politician – even more reluctant than ever to commit to a fresh poll and, if she does, to make any mistakes. For all these reasons and more, any new independence referendum campaign is going to be very different from the last one. But one thing is certain, it is not going to be any more amicable. It will be just as divisive, just as rancorous and just as nasty and it is now up to Miss Sturgeon to decide if that is what she wants to put us through, all over again.