SECRET SNP PLAN FOR INDY VOTE NEXT YEAR
EXCLUSIVE: Sturgeon plans shock new bid to break up the UK... and keep Scotland in EU
A SECOND independence referendum is to be held next year – as part of secret plans being drawn up by Nicola Sturgeon to exploit the Brexit vote result.
The First Minister will launch a ‘hearts and minds’ campaign within weeks to persuade sceptical Scots – especially those who voted No in the last referendum – that Scotland would be better off as a separate country.
Towards the end of the year-long propaganda drive, she plans to call a snap referendum to try again to break up the Union.
Miss Sturgeon and her key strategists are drawing up a secret step-by-step plan for their next push for independence.
The SNP leader is keen to capitalise on the perceived anger over Brexit. She is also determined to move quickly, believing that if she can secure majority backing for independence within the two-year period of the negotiations, it will make it far easier to persuade the EU to let Scotland simply stay in Europe without having to leave then reapply.
This means Scots would once again be asked to decide whether to end the centuries-old
Union – only three years after they voted No in what was supposedly a ‘once in a generation’ referendum.
Most commentators had expected the SNP to delay a referendum until the polls showed a clear lead for Yes.
The First Minister has insisted she will exhaust every option on Scotland’s future before calling a referendum. But with recent polls showing support for independence at around the same levels as in 2014, Yes strategists now want to press ahead with another poll anyway.
They believe retaining Scotland’s place in the EU will be the critical issue in another referendum campaign – and think the vote has to be held around a year before the conclusion of the UK’s two-year-long negotiations to leave, which will begin when Article 50 is triggered by Theresa May.
Securing a Yes vote in 2017 would allow Miss Sturgeon about a year to persuade Brussels to allow Scotland to remain a member of the EU when the UK leaves.
A senior Yes Scotland source said: ‘The referendum has to happen in 2017 to allow the negotiations with the EU to take place in parallel with the Brexit negotiations.
‘The key point this time will be that, if Scotland votes to become independent and remain in the EU, it can enjoy all the economic benefits of that. If it leaves with the rest of the UK, there is a lot of economic uncertainty that goes along with that. It will be a much more convincing case on the economy.’
In 2014, the SNP’s argument that Scotland would automatically remain a member of the EU following a Yes vote was dealt a devastating blow by European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, who said it was ‘extremely difficult, if not impossible’ that it could avoid the process of applying as a new member state – which can take years – would mean losing many of the benefits the UK enjoys and could include a commitment to join the euro.
But SNP strategists believe the UK’s decision to leave the EU will mean Brussels leaders will remain neutral during another referendum.
That means it would only be in the aftermath of the vote that Scots would learn if independence could keep Scotland in the EU.
The pro-independence source, an influential figure in the Nationalist movement, said: ‘The situation is entirely different this time. The EU is losing the UK, one of its most important members. That is potentially difficult for them. If we can make the case that they have the opportunity to keep an independent Scotland, with one-third of the UK’s land mass, that will be appealing to them.
‘In 2014, there were campaigns in the rest of the UK for Scotland not to leave. But in the event of another referendum, we can reach out to the rest of the UK and say that Scotland retaining EU membership can have advantages for them in terms of reaching out to the EU market.’
SNP strategists believe they lost the 2014 referendum because they failed to make the economic case for a Yes vote. But they are now working on a new economic blueprint that could include a new position on currency, ditching the previous commitment to retaining the pound as part of a ‘currency union’ with the UK.
Prior to the EU referendum, SNP officials had suggested they wanted to wait until support for independence stood at 60 per cent before calling another referendum. But they are now only seeking a simple majority before calling a rerun of the 2014 poll because they are confident support for independence will grow as Brexit negotiations progress.
A YouGov poll last month found 53 per cent of Scots would vote No in an independence referendum, compared to 47 per cent who would vote Yes. This compares to a 55-45 split in the 2014 vote.
Pro-Union campaigners say leaving the UK would be even more disastrous for Scotland’s economy than in 2014, since the EU referendum vote will make Scotland more reliant on trade with the rest of the UK.
Scottish Tory deputy leader Jackson Carlaw said: ‘What happened to the 2014 referendum being a “once in a generation” event? The SNP’s argument that Scotland is better off in the EU than the UK is plainly wrong. We export four times as much to Britain – and the voters will tell the SNP as much. The Nationalists really have to drop their talk of a referendum rerun and focus on the things that really matter.’
The SNP conference in October is due to debate a second referendum. A motion from the Edinburgh West branch says: ‘Conference believes every avenue must be explored to keep Scotland in the EU.
‘If no viable solution to safeguard our membership as part of the UK exists, Scotland should prepare for a second independence referendum and seek to remain in Europe as an independent country.’
Asked if the SNP is planning a 2017 referendum, a spokesman said: ‘Our focus is on negotiations to protect Scotland’s relationship with the EU and our place in the single market.
‘Scotland needs the stability and security of remaining in the world’s biggest single market.’
‘A much more convincing case on the economy’ ‘Focus on the things that really matter’