Why Italy could wreck Nicola’s indy ambitions
IT’S good to know Nicola Sturgeon is at last getting a break. The First Minister has jetted off to Portugal with her husband, Peter Murrell, after what has been something of a busy year. But perhaps it might have been better had she gone to Italy. She may hate the idea of rubbing shoulders with Westminster’s Notting Hill crowd who set up camp in Tuscany every year. But had she gone with them, she would have seen first-hand the one storm cloud gathering in Europe which could wreck her Scottish independence dreams for ever.
To put this in context, it is worth going back to the days before the Brexit vote when David Owen, the former SDP leader, came to Edinburgh to preach the virtues of leaving the EU. To be frank, Lord Owen – as he is now – did ramble on a bit. Well, he rambled on a lot and he rambled on about all sorts of things, most of which were entirely forgettable. But the one theme he kept returning to was Italy.
According to Lord Owen, Italy is on the brink of a catastrophic financial and economic disaster that will plunge the eurozone into crisis and drag the rest of Europe down with it. His advice was simple: get out of Europe while we can and avoid having to bail out the profligate and hopelessly disorganised Italians.
Since then, Britain has taken his advice and voted to leave the EU. As a result, if Italy implodes, we should avoid the potentially enormous bills that would have come our way had we stayed in.
Not only that, but if – as seems likely – Italy spirals downwards and pulls the rest of the EU with it, that unexpected decision by Britain to leave may start to look like a pretty smart move.
Indeed, it may not be long before the populations of other countries start pushing their governments to do something similar, putting the entire European project in jeopardy.
How will all this sit with an SNP campaign to tear Scotland out of the UK and put it firmly back into the EU?
The EU, which looks so inviting to Nationalists right now, may begin to appear like damaged goods in the not too distant future. The UK, far from appearing the old and outdated institution the SNP likes to make out, may begin to seem like something of an economic safe haven. Before you dismiss this idea as fanciful, just consider the state Italy is in at the moment.
The country’s lenders are currently struggling to cope with £300 billion of bad loans.
Its political leaders have a choice: accept a massive bail-out from the EU which will cause huge financial hardship to millions of ordinary Italians – or organise its own bail-out, in defiance of strict EU rules.
The Italians really are stuck between a financial rock and an economic hard place and it is difficult to see how this can be resolved without an almighty strain on the eurozone or even the fracturing of the EU itself.
There has been a rather naïve assumption in SNP circles that the next Scottish independence referendum has already almost been won because Scots will back the EU over the UK.
That may be the case now but it may not be the case in a year’s time, which is when, as we now know, senior Nationalists want to hold the next referendum.
If, at that stage, the EU is in crisis – with Italian problems crippling the eurozone and countries all over the continent itching to leave – then most Scots will conclude, quite sensibly, that the EU does not provide all the answers the SNP leadership insists it does.
As is revealed elsewhere in this newspaper today, Miss Sturgeon appears determined to charge ahead with another independence poll within the next year to 18 months.
But it could prove very dangerous to start planning for that now, without anybody able to see what is going to happen over the next year.
At the moment, the EU as a concept still looks relatively inviting to many Scots. But in a year’s time, Europe could well be in crisis. If that is the case, it will make the choice of EU or UK a pretty easy one for Scots, who will almost certainly opt firmly for the UK.
WE should not forget what effect the Brexit vote has had on Europe. It has dealt the European project a major body blow. The EU is damaged, perhaps mortally so. Add in the spiralling problems over refugees from Syria and North Africa and the EU’s inability to do anything about it; the increasing popularity of Rightwing parties in France, Germany and other countries; and the shocking youth unemployment statistics in Spain and Greece.
The EU does not then look like the oasis of modernity and stability the Nationalists portray it to be.
At the moment, the decision to leave the EU is causing anger and frustration in Scotland. But could it actually turn out to be a blessing in disguise?
I hope the First Minister has a great break in Portugal. Next summer, though, I would recommend that trip to Italy.
She might find her fellow political holidaymakers a bit of a pain but I can guarantee that she would find the visit extremely informative, particularly if, as seems likely, she has already put in place plans for a fresh plebiscite on independence.