HAMISH MACDONELL
IT used to be so simple. In the old days, when the SNP conference was small enough to fit inside a moderate rep theatre somewhere in Northern Scotland, the party knew where it was going. There was a glorious, idealistic simplicity to all those kilts and sandals, those Saltire shopping bags and Bannockburn T-shirts.
Yes, there were disagreements, but these were about pace, not direction.
Even in the past few years, when the party mushroomed into a mass movement, everybody at conference knew where they were going: it was election victory, referendum and independence, in that order.
But now? The atmosphere at this year’s SNP conference has been one of confusion. On the key, some would say only, real issue – independence – nobody seems to know where the party is going, what its plans are or how it is to achieve them.
Nicola Sturgeon has tried to tread a very, very fine line between encouraging a drive for a new independence referendum and the nervous caution of a politician who doesn’t know if the public will back her.
This has left her trying to play up the case for a fresh referendum and play it down, both at the same time.
But the evidence on the ground, in the bars and restaurants around the conference hall, suggested that, by trying to do two things at once, she has convinced no one.
One senior activist said: ‘I have no idea why Nicola is pushing so hard on Indyref 2. We can’t pursue this until we know absolutely what we are doing, that we have the answers we didn’t have last time and we know the people are behind us. This is vital because, if we fail this time, we are finished.’
On the other side, activists are urging the First Minister to be more, not less, assertive.
Geoff Aberdein, once Alex Salmond’s adviser, told a fringe event Miss Sturgeon should go all-out for another referendum before the SNP loses both public support and power.
This is the crux of the party’s – and the First Minister’s – problems. Miss Sturgeon has led the party on. She has made it believe another referendum will take place before too long.
For the indy hawks, this is good news as far as it goes, but they remain frustrated at the lack of a proper timetable. They want Miss Sturgeon to go further and bring forward the plans as soon as possible.
For the indy doves, however, talk of an imminent referendum is the stuff of nightmares. They fear going into a campaign half-cocked, without the information and the support needed to win it.
This is why the party is so uncertain and why this year’s conference has been the SNP’s most directionless and confused for years.
This is Miss Sturgeon’s fault, primarily because she is a naturally cautious politician. She wants to keep both wings of her party onside until she can decide what she needs to do. She also wants to leave it as long as possible before she makes a decision,
This has led to criticism. There are more grumblings and mutterings in the bars around the conference than there have been for years.
This is not to suggest Miss Sturgeon’s authority is under threat in any way. It isn’t. She is still the queen of her party and will be for a long time.
But the activists are frustrated simply because their leader has not made it clear what she wants to do.
Also, because this is the SNP, there are always going to be comparisons with her predecessor. One activist said: ‘Alex Salmond would have called another independence referendum the day after the Brexit vote. He was an instinctive politician and he would have seized the opportunity.’
That may well be correct. Mr Salmond was a gambler who loved nothing more than risking everything on a single, huge throw of the dice. Miss Sturgeon is not like that and it is her indecision that is causing such confusion.
THE Glasgow conference showed, in some ways, the SNP at its most powerful. There were grand claims this was the biggest party conference in the UK this year. Indeed, this annual gathering has grown so much that the media had to be housed in a large hall which the whole SNP used to gather in for the conference itself a few years ago.
The party’s burgeoning power could also be seen from the names of the exhibitors which, this year, included everyone from the Government of Gibraltar to McDonald’s.
Yet at a time when the SNP has never been bigger, when its conference has never had more influence, the party has never seemed so uncertain.
Miss Sturgeon and her advisers will hope this is just a blip, that the party will come together again, just as soon as she works out exactly what direction she wants to go in.
But the First Minister should also beware. Activists on both sides of the debate are not happy. They want to know where Miss Sturgeon is taking them. At the moment, they do not.