HAMISH MACDONELL

IN Borgen, Nicola Sturgeon’s favourite TV show, they are always doing deals that go down to the wire. The typically Scandinavian government in this Danish political drama is always on the cusp of defeat and needs the votes of an opposition party to survive.

Holyrood is generally seen as dry and boring in comparison, but that could be about to change: indeed, we seem to be about to go back to the future.

We are set to revisit the days between 2007 and 2011, when Alex Salmond’s administration did not have a majority – the position in which Miss Sturgeon finds herself now – and the Budget was the only piece of legislation the Government had to pass.

John Swinney, Finance Secretary during those first minority years, managed to get all his Budgets passed – but it was often a pretty close-run thing.

There were times when no one – not even Mr Swinney – knew if the Budget would have the support it needed with only minutes to go before the crucial vote.

The Tories were the big winners then, securing funding for business rates and the police, which not only could they crow about at subsequent elections, but which made them look relevant for the first time since the advent of the parliament.

This is the crucial point – and it is why two of Scotland’s smaller parties will start vying for attention during this year’s Budget process, which starts this week.

THE Greens have six MSPs and the Lib Dems five – and both are trying hard to get noticed. The SNP has 63 MSPs, two short of a majority, so current Finance Secretary Derek Mackay needs one opposition party to back his Budget to get it through.

The Tories are unlikely to go anywhere near it – their aim is rather different now. In the past, when they wanted to achieve something – anything – squeezing a concession out of the Government was seen as a positive.

Now, though, Ruth Davidson’s Tories are the main opposition party and feel they have to be seen as such. The party has to be portrayed as standing up to everything the SNP Government does – almost as the governmentin-waiting. The Tories are unlikely to enter into any back-room deals this time.

Labour is in a similar position. No longer the main opposition party, it does not want to leave that ground to the Tories: to do so would reek of failure and retreat.

So it will be down to the Lib Dems and the Greens.

The Greens want radical changes to the SNP’s tax plans, a total ban on fracking and a change of direction on road and air travel.

The Lib Dems want the SNP to raise more income tax as well, but they also want to see a big investment in mental health.

It is this last issue which may become the easiest one to which Mr Mackay can agree.

He will have to find the extra money – or at least some of it – the Lib Dems want; but if he can do that, he may well get the votes he needs, his Budget through and everyone happy.

Such a victory, however small, would be a major fillip for the Lib Dems. For the past six years, ever since they went into government with David Cameron, they have been on a downward slope so steep they appeared to be heading for political oblivion.

But the party’s by-election victory in Richmond Park, which suggested it may gain quite a lot of traction from determined Remainers over coming months, has given it heart.

If the Lib Dems in Scotland can prove themselves to be relevant once again – and delivering on mental health funding would be a modest but solid start – there is a feeling the party could start to put its disastrous coalition days behind it.

The irony of all this is that when it comes to policy platforms, the Tories are the most natural partners for the SNP.

They published a plan last week for Air Passenger Duty to be abolished for long-haul flights and frozen for short-haul flights. The SNP has similar plans.

They also approve of SNP plans to hand money direct to schools, bypassing local authorities. They like the SNP’s plans for more parental control over childcare and more money for housing and transport infrastructure.

But here’s where the politics of perception comes in. Neither side wants to be seen to be getting into bed with the other. So although they have a lot in common, it would be a major surprise to all at Holyrood if the Conservatives and the SNP even started talking about a deal on the Budget, let alone actually doing one.

ANOTHER interesting twist is that many of the main players in this drama – Patrick Harvie for the Greens, Willie Rennie for the Lib Dems and Murdo Fraser for the Tories – have been through all this before. They know how this process works, what is required and how long to hold out before conceding any ground.

Mr Mackay is wet behind the ears in comparison. In fact, he wasn’t even an MSP the last time we had this sort of last-minute, deal-making drama to contend with. He is, however, now seen as one of the SNP’s high fliers, a potential leader and future First Minister – but he has a tough act to follow.

Mr Swinney was always pretty accomplished when it came to this odd game of parliamentary poker.

How the inexperienced Mr Mackay deals with this Budget process over the coming weeks will go a long way towards determining whether those predictions about his starry future are right.

Borgen it ain’t – but intriguing it certainly will be.

DAVID Mundell has been telling colleagues that he intends to take a break over New Year: not because 2016 has been so difficult, but because he fears 2017 could be even more busy. Does the

Scottish Secretary know something we don’t? Is he preparing for another General Election in the spring?

If he is, he certainly isn’t telling.