INDYREF 2018? DON’T BET ON IT
As the SNP plots further devastating constitutional mayhem, a word of warning for the First Minister...
NICOLA Sturgeon and her SNP colleagues seem to assume they will only have to demand a second referendum on independence and that one must then take place sometime in 2018.
They could find themselves disappointed. For Westminster to be under a responsibility to pass the necessary legislation, an honest judgement would have to be made as to whether the Scottish public, as opposed to the SNP, actually want another referendum such a short time after the last one.
That is not just my view. It is also the strongly held opinion of no one less than the First Minister.
As recently as late 2015, Miss Sturgeon gave an important interview in which she presented her views on a second independence referendum. She stressed , in particular, how the 2014 referendum had seriously, and bitterly, divided Scottish families and communities. She emphasised that we must seek to avoid that happening again.
She declared that a second referendum would only, in her view, be justified if there was clear and sustained evidence, over several months, that the Scottish people, by a large majority, now wanted to leave the United Kingdom.
With that in mind, she said a second referendum should only be proposed if there was evidence from opinion surveys and other sources, over several months, that around 60 per cent of Scots had now reached a settled view that independence, and leaving the UK, was the best option for Scotland.
Since she made that speech, the main change, of course, has been the Brexit referendum in which 62 per cent of Scots voted Remain, while the UK as a whole voted to leave.
Miss Sturgeon maintains that justifies a second referendum in the near future and that she is likely to demand one if the UK Government activates Article 50 without a commitment to seek a separate deal for Scotland to enable it to remain in the single market when the rest of the UK leaves.
However, she knows her own requirements have not been met. The SNP expected that the prospect of the UK leaving the EU, despite a majority of Scots voting otherwise, would persuade large numbers of Scottish Unionists to indicate that independence was now preferable to remaining in the UK.
THAT has not happened. Most opinion surveys and other evidence has shown not only that support for independence remains around 45 per cent, but that about 60 per cent are against a second referendum because of the disruption and renewed bitterness that would cause.
The SNP cannot be allowed to pray in aid of the 62 per cent of Scots who voted Remain while ignoring the 60 per cent who are against another independence referendum, including many Nationalist voters.
In rejecting any demand from Miss Sturgeon for a new referendum, the UK Government would be entitled to say the decision was in conformity with the apparent wishes of the Scottish people.
In any event, an independence referendum in 2018 would be held before the outcome of the Brexit negotiations would be known. Scots would be forced to make a judgment as to the consequences for Scotland of the UK leaving the EU without knowing what our new relationship with the EU and the single market was going to be.
There has been some speculation the UK Government might reject a new referendum while the Brexit negotiations are continuing, but agree to one after they are complete. While it might be unwise to rule out any second referendum in the foreseeable future, to indicate that there would be a referendum once the outcome of the Brexit negotiations are known would make the future of the Union a dangerous hostage to fortune.
The UK Government would be seen as having committed itself to another referendum in the next few years; the only issue would be the date on which it would be held.
That would be unwise. We do not know now the political climate that will exist in Scotland in two years. A clear majority of Scots may still be against another referendum. There is, already, a slow but unmistakeable disillusionment with the SNP administration at Holyrood, which has been in power for more than ten years.
Ruth Davidson is leading a reinvigorated main opposition party against the SNP, which may incur significant losses in this year’s council elections and in the next Holyrood election.
IAM as confident as one can be that if a second referendum were held, the SNP would, again, lose. But none of us knows for certain. Logically, the SNP would be likely to do worse than last time. The collapse of the oil price has destroyed what was already a weak economic case for separatism. Furthermore, while independence might allow Scotland to enjoy the benefits of the EU single market Scotland would, simultaneously, be leaving the UK single market. As England and Wales are, by far, the biggest single market for Scottish exports, this would be a spectacular own goal.
It would be foolish if the UK Government now committed itself to any new referendum to be held after we had left the EU.
The time to decide on the need for a second referendum will be in 2019 or 2020. It is not now. The decision should be based not on whether the SNP demands another referendum, but on whether the Scottish people as a whole agree with it; which, at present, they do not.
If we have another referendum campaign, we now know what to expect. Two years will be dominated by rancour and divisiveness, without progress on education, health, transport or other vital issues that affect all our lives. Once again we will be obsessed by Scotland’s constitutional future, with the SNP unwilling or unable to accept the outcome if it is again against them.
Of course, in some respects, the campaign would be different to 2014. The Labour Party in Scotland is a shadow of its former self; the Scottish Conservatives, under a highly popular leader, are now the main opposition party. The Unionist vote is becoming more cohesive and, therefore, more powerful.
But any campaign would not be between political parties, nor would it need to be led by politicians. Great Britain is a modest-sized island with great achievements and a bright future.
The choice for Scots would be whether we continue to share this island by union with our fellow citizens in England and Wales – or prefer a leap into the unknown and an uncertain union with Continental Europe.
There is disillusionment with the SNP already