From spent force to the doughtiest defenders of the Union in only 5 years
RUTH Davidson’s greatest political achievement is to have persuaded Scots – including those who oppose her party – that a vote for the Conservatives will result in the election of Conservative politicians.
For a long time, the Tories were considered a spent force in Scotland; a vote for that dying party was a vote wasted. Even if you were tempted to back the Conservatives, there was hardly anywhere in the country that your support might make a difference.
Now in giving her party a clear mission – opposition to a second independence referendum – Miss Davidson has restored confidence in the Scottish Tories as a credible force.
A stunning result in last year’s Scottish parliamentary election saw her lead the Tories past Labour to become the official opposition. Those who put their faith in the Conservative leader had it handsomely repaid. Miss Davidson had proved that votes for Tories could make a difference.
As we hurtle towards the snap General Election on June 8, all of Scotland’s political parties have turned to internal polling to give them some idea of how things might pan out. And all of the parties are seeing numbers that suggest the Scottish Conservatives will make the most gains.
Nationalists and Unionists alike mutter about the possibility of the Tories, currently represented in Scotland by the lonesome figure of David Mundell, winning as many as eight – on a good day, perhaps even ten – seats in Scotland.
It goes without saying that SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon will emerge from the General Election campaign with by far the largest number of MPs, but those close to her do not expect the Nationalists to replicate the 2015 result when they won 56 of Scotland’s 59 Westminster seats.
That said, worst-case scenarios being discussed in all parties have the SNP returning at least 45 MPs, which would still represent a thwocking great victory.
Inevitably, the result of the General Election in Scotland will be analysed for any clues it might give as to the country’s position on independence. If Miss Davidson can deliver a Tory result that helps the vote for the Unionist parties outstrip that for the Scottish Nationalists, her reputation as the scourge of the SNP will be enhanced.
UNTIL recently, the SNP was the only political party in Scotland that could credibly claim to be making significant progress. But nowadays Ruth Davidson has the right to make the same claim for the Scottish Conservatives.
Miss Sturgeon has taken a significant gamble in announcing her plan to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence, either late next year or early in 2019. Crucial to her chances of success in that vote is the maintenance of momentum (or the appearance thereof) behind the SNP as a campaigning force.
Next month, the SNP is set for its best-ever result in Scottish council elections. Barring an upset of unprecedented proportions it will seize control of Glasgow, for decades a Labour stronghold, with the SNP claiming another milestone in its journey towards independence.
But in the General Election Miss Davidson stands to inflict significant damage on the idea that the SNP is an unstoppable force. And in addition to predicted gains for the Tories, SNP insiders are bracing themselves for perhaps two losses to the Liberal Democrats.
No party is seeing any polling that suggests Labour might increase its number of MPs, and we face the quite remarkable prospect of the Labour Party coming fourth in terms of the number of MPs it returns in Scotland.
The SNP may have been first to inflict serious damage on Labour but Miss Davidson, too, has played her part in that party’s continuing decline. In the aftermath of the 2014 independence referendum, the Labour Party made the catastrophic mistake of believing it could win back former supporters who’d voted Yes and subsequently lined up behind the SNP. Its Scottish leader Kezia Dugdale and other senior Labour figures suggested they might be persuaded to support independence in the future.
But rather than being persuaded by this shameless attempt to be all things to all people, former Labour voters looked on the party with contempt.
Miss Dugdale, in seeking to win back the third of Labour voters who’d decided they preferred the SNP, lost sight of what mattered to the twothirds who remained. These were staunch No voters, who’d stayed with Labour in the face of ferocious attacks from the SNP.
What they needed to hear from Miss Dugdale was that she backed them in opposing independence. She says she does now, of course. But it took her too long to establish her opposition to a second independence referendum. She missed her opportunity to become a rallying figure for the Unionist majority.
But while Labour was doing all the wrong things, the Tories under Miss Davidson were doing all the right ones. A clear and defiant message of opposition to a second independence referendum helped the Conservatives overtake Labour in the polls.
In just five-and-a-half years, Miss Davidson has made the Tories a viable proposition for voters. During recent clashes in the Holyrood chamber, Miss Sturgeon has seemed increasingly rattled. And we can expect hostilities to heighten as the General Election campaign hots up.
Instead of focusing on independence, Miss Sturgeon is being forced to spend seven weeks campaigning in an election likely to show support for her party slipping, if only a little.
When the election is over, either Miss Sturgeon will have increased support for independence – or Ruth Davidson will have helped strengthen the resolve of the Unionist majority.
On recent form, I would bet on the latter outcome.
A clear and defiant message of opposition to a referendum