Young ones hold the key

ANOTHER week, another narrowing of the Tory lead in the polls. Their average lead of seven points is now no more than the one David Cameron secured in the ballot box two years ago.

Theresa May could still win a bigger majority than Cameron, not least due to taking seats from the SNP. But she does seem at serious risk of failing to achieve the landslide she was seeking.

Our seatometer – which takes into account evidence the Tories are advancing strongly in northern England and Scotland, but could lose seats to Labour in London and the South – puts the projected majority at 30.

Even the biggest Tory lead registered by any poll in the past week – 12 points – could still leave the party with a majority of no more than 70, short of the 80 it has been suggested is the minimum target of the Conservatives. But a small swing in either direction, or error in the polls, could make a significant difference to the outcome – which may yet depend on the turnout among younger voters who still show a strong inclination to vote Labour. However, they often fail to make it to the polls.