BRILLIANT BUT NOT UNBEATABLE
Robbie Neilson’s Hearts almost halted Celtic’s Invincibles at the very start of their record run. But while another title is inevitable, he insists their scalp will be the big prize
WILL season 2017-18 see the making of the Invincibles Part II? Historically, the sequel rarely measures up to the original and, having nearly ended the first instalment before the opening credits had rolled, Robbie Neilson knows how tough it will be for Brendan Rodgers’ Celtic to pull off another unbeaten Premiership season.
Just as Hearts will provide the flag day opposition next Saturday, it was the men in maroon who provided the first domestic test of the Rodgers reign at Tynecastle last August.
Still a few months off his switch to English League One outfit MK Dons, Neilson had a game plan and reckoned a win was within reach as the match passed the hour mark tied at 1-1.
Then the head coach looked along the touchline and saw Rodgers readying his new signing Scott Sinclair for action.
‘We competed with them for 70 minutes that day,’ chuckles Neilson. ‘We were in a good position, one from which we were looking to try to win the game. But they sent on a £4million player and that made the difference. Sinclair scored the winner and they went from strength to strength.
‘Nobody knew what was to follow but it was a remarkable achievement to go the full season unbeaten. Celtic have an extremely strong squad but the biggest achievement for me was their consistency, that mental determination to dig out result after result even when they did not strictly need the points.’
Thus far, Rodgers’ summer spending has involved a £1.3m outlay on Aberdeen winger Jonny Hayes and the £4.5m purchase of midfielder Olivier Ntcham from Manchester City.
‘It’s difficult to say if they could go undefeated again,’ adds Neilson. ‘Over the season there are things that can happen. You might have a night where, for whatever reason, they step off the gas.
‘A player could be sent off. Or they’re simply exhausted after a big European night and meet a team that finds a performance on the day. But that’s not to say they aren’t capable.’
Neilson’s final act as Hearts boss was to beat Rangers on the last day of November, a victory that elevated the Gorgie club to second in the table and placed Mark Warburton under heightened pressure.
A few weeks later Neilson took Robbie Muirhead, his side’s double goalscorer of that night, to Milton Keynes while Hearts struggled to hold their ground under his youthful successor Ian Cathro.
Muirhead’s transfer was just one aspect of a woeful transfer window at Tynecastle, as a hotchpotch of, in the main, short-term signings failed to knit together. The team finished a distant fifth.
‘This could be a big year for Hearts,’ says Neilson. ‘The new stand should make the stadium even more intimidating for the opposition and Ian has had time to bed in.
‘When you go into a new job it’s difficult to make all the right decisions at the first attempt. He’ll have learned a lot.’
Hearts’ pitiful early exit from the Betfred Cup yesterday suggests there remain frailties but Neilson sees significant improvement in the club’s recruitment policy. They have strengthened at both ends of the pitch, with Scotland defender Christophe Berra, a former team-mate of Neilson’s, back as captain and Northern Ireland striker Kyle Lafferty also on board.
Neilson still expects Aberdeen, second last term, to again lead the charge behind Celtic but he anticipates Hearts joining Rangers and possibly even newlypromoted Hibernian in the mix.
‘I think Christophe is a top signing. He is perfect for Hearts, a current international player who knows the club inside out. With John Souttar coming back from injury and Aaron Hughes already there, they should be a lot stronger defensively this season. And with Lafferty and Isma Goncalves up front they have goals, too.’
Aberdeen started the summer with huge question marks hanging over both a diminished playing squad and the future of the manager.
With Hayes sold and McGinn, skipper Ryan Jack, Ash Taylor and Peter Pawlett (another to join Neilson at the Stadium mk) all exercising freedom of contract, McInnes was offered his own possible escape route by Sunderland.
Instead he used the opportunity to strengthen his hand with the Aberdeen board, earning a new contract and the promise of squad investment.
‘As ever, Derek has recruited well,’ observes Neilson. ‘Hayes and McGinn were so crucial to the way Aberdeen played, the way they linked up with Adam Rooney was responsible for a lot of goals.
‘Derek has not replaced them like for like. Those two would run you down the line but Gary Mackay-Steven and Greg Stewart are different kinds of wingers.
‘GMS likes to go one-on-one with the full-back whereas Stewart looks to cut in and have a shot — and you won’t find anybody better in the league at doing that.
‘So it’s going to be a different kind of Aberdeen team but they remain geared to attack. They spend the bulk of their games on the front foot so these guys, and Ryan Christie, will see plenty of the ball.
‘Behind Celtic, they’ll be the team to beat.’
Comfortable promotion winners under Warburton a year ago, Rangers announced themselves as ‘going for 55’ at the start of last term and Caixinha adopted some of that hubris when he declared Aberdeen as reaching ‘the end of a cycle’.
The acquisition of Jack, McInnes’ captain and midfield anchor, demonstrated Rangers’ superior spending power. Defeat to Luxembourg’s Progres Niederkorn in the Europa League suggested that cash does not always guarantee quality.
The Portuguese has been afforded significant funds to at least form a challenge to Celtic but Neilson expects Rangers to find their fight elsewhere. He sees sense in the signings of Jack and Graham Dorrans, likewise the pursuit of Hearts winger Jamie Walker and Aberdeen’s Kenny McLean. However, the emphasis on acquiring players from Caixinha’s previous stamping grounds of Mexico (Eduardo Herrera, Carlos Pena) and Portugal (Alves, Fabio Cardoso, Dalcio, Daniel Candeias) means there is a still a great deal of uncertainty around the prospects of the Ibrox side.
‘I must admit to not knowing much about Pedro Caixinha or the players he has brought in,’ says Neilson. ‘Bruno Alves has pedigree, as does Graham Dorrans, and it’s important they retain that Scottish element to the team not only to understand the Scottish game but provide a link with the fans.
‘It’s all about balance. There’s always room for the player who can add that bit of magic but you need the support around him. Rangers have made an awful lot of signings and they will need to work on communication and shape. They will doubtless want to bridge that gap to Celtic, but that will be difficult.’
Hibs are Neilson’s wildcard pick. From experience, he knows that it is possible to take a promoted team into the Premiership and finish high. Equally, he acknowledges that in 201516, Hearts had neither their city rivals nor Rangers to contend with as they mounted a challenge to Aberdeen.
There was credit in finishing third that year and he sees enough in Neil Lennon’s Championship-winning squad to envisage a top-half finish.
‘You can definitely get a bounce when you come up,’ he says. ‘Hibs have won the league and there is a feel-good factor among the fans. The trick is to latch on to that momentum and use it to set yourself up for a good season.
‘I would expect them to be top six, possibly even challenging with Hearts, Aberdeen and Rangers if they get a good start. Steven Whittaker is an excellent signing. Like Christophe, he knows what it’s all about to play in this environment and that can rub off on those around him. ‘And it will be good to see the derbies back, not just for Edinburgh but for the league as a whole.’ History dictates that St Johnstone should not be discounted. Hibs may have pinched Tommy Wright’s key playmaker Danny Swanson but the Northern Irishman is
Christophe is the perfect signing for Hearts. He knows the club inside out and they will be strong defensively
quietly confident that, in Stefan Scougall, he has acquired a replacement who is not only capable but younger.
‘Tommy knows how to put a team together — he does it every year,’ reasons Neilson. ‘They’re always so tough to play against. They make it difficult to get a foothold in the game and that’s down to organisation and experience.
‘Seven or eight of that team will have 200-300 games in this league. They operate on know-how and there’s always someone in there who can open you up.
‘This year the challenge is to replace Swanson but Scougall is a good fit. I knew him when he was at Livingston and he comes back a more rounded player from Sheffield United. He is a similar type in that he wants to get on the ball and link with the forwards.’
Neilson fears there will be no room for a team to emerge from the pack and emulate Partick Thistle’s achievement in making the top half. He continued: ‘I think there will be two leagues within the league. There will be a battle at the top and then one between the rest.’
Not that he expects any significant tail-off from Thistle and their quietly impressive orchestrator Alan Archibald.
‘I’ve been really impressed with Alan. He has one of the smallest budgets in the league yet he makes it stretch a long way. He’s done it the right way — year one promotion, then stabilisation then the push into the top six.
‘Behind the scenes, they have got it right too. There’s a new training facility on the way which will not only improve the working environment but attract better players. The next step is going to be tough for them but all the foundations are there.’ So who might end up facing the drop? Hamilton, once again, are the bookmakers’ favourites for relegation — a status that will suit Martin Canning and his players just fine. ‘People point towards Hamilton but I can assure you it’s one of the very hardest places to go,’ says Neilson. ‘The artificial pitch gives them a huge advantage. They train on it every day and they know exactly how the ball is going to run and how it’s going to bounce. It’s almost impossible to play any football on it.
‘They have an established way of playing that goes back to Alex Neil’s time in charge. Martin Canning has kept that going and they always seem to get a result when they need it.’
Accies’ Lanarkshire rivals Motherwell avoided the play-offs last term but, having already lost Scott McDonald, are now desperately trying to keep hold of top scorer Louis Moult. The Englishman has admirers on both sides of the border and Neilson believes the loss of the forward could put the Fir Park side in peril.
‘I know there are teams sniffing around Moult and his name has been put about down here. The big warning for Steve Robinson is what happened to Paul Hartley last season. Dundee had put in a good season and then the board decided to sell Kane Hemmings and Greg Stewart.
‘Paul simply couldn’t replace the goals from that team, the side struggled and ultimately he paid with his job.’
Hartley was replaced by Neil McCann, another of Neilson’s former team-mates at Hearts. The 42-year-old kept the club up but elected to step back into his broadcasting role at the end of the season before undergoing a change of heart that has seen him appointed full-time.
‘Neil is a fierce competitor and when he stepped away from the job at the end of last season I suspect he missed the buzz,’ reasons Neilson.
‘Scott Allan (on loan from Celtic) looks a particularly good signing. I played with him when he was emerging at Dundee United and he is a match-winner who can turn a game on his own.’
Neilson expects Ross County and their manager Jim McIntyre to benefit from a lessening of the pressure that followed the club’s League Cup win in March 2016. Without the presence of the league’s top scorer Liam Boyce, the Highlanders may have been sucked into a relegation scrap but, even after the Northern Irishman’s sale to Burton, Neilson thinks McIntyre has enough additional support on and off the pitch.
‘Ross County are a very stable club and I like the chairman Roy MacGregor. He reminds me a lot of Ann Budge at Hearts, very quiet in the way he goes about his business but supportive too,’ he says.
‘Losing Liam Boyce is a blow but they’ve brought in Billy Mckay to get goals. The Cup win was a magnificent thing for Ross County but it also made them a scalp. This season there might be a wee bit of a return to normality.’
A steady season is also the goal of Kilmarnock’s Lee McCulloch. The former Scotland midfielder took his time before accepting the offer to succeed Lee Clark full-time and made it clear that he wished to purse a more sustainable recruitment plan than the one favoured by his predecessor.
‘I think Lee is right to try to progress the club in the way he has,’ adds Neilson. ‘When you bring in 10 loan players you have no investment in their long-term futures. And when things get tough it might be hard to motivate them.
‘Guys like Kirk Broadfoot and Chris Burke give him a good base from which to work and they also have a few young players, guys like Greg Taylor, who have broken through and impressed.’
Bruno Alves has pedigree. But Rangers have made a lot of signings and it will be difficult
It’s going to be a different kind of Aberdeen team but they remain geared to attack