THE QUESTION FOR NICOLA: WHAT EXACTLY DO YOU DO?
THIS year’s summer parliamentary recess couldn’t come quickly enough for First Minister Nicola Sturgeon. The loss of 21 MPs in June’s General Election knocked her for six and threw her plans for a second, bruising independence referendum into chaos.
In the weeks that followed the election, the First Minister looked increasingly uncertain of what she was doing. After years of being in complete control, she had begun to bump into a new political reality in which it appeared the much anticipated SNP backlash had begun.
Faced with the reality that Unionist parties had achieved the largest share of the vote – and thus Westminster could confidently block a second referendum – Miss Sturgeon drilled down. There would be a second vote, she said. But nobody was convinced.
The First Minister, having seen that the prospect of a second referendum had played its part in the SNP’s losses, should have taken the painful, but necessary, step of immediately ruling out another ballot for the remainder of the current parliament. If voters are deserting you because you keep dangling the prospect of an ugly referendum in front of their eyes, you won’t win them back by chasing after them shouting, ‘Look at it, damn you!’
Miss Sturgeon, so often the consummate political performer, appeared to be in denial.
When Holyrood pulled down the shutters at the start of July, the First Minister was weakened in a way that would have been unimaginable only weeks before.
As the Scottish parliament reconvenes this week, Miss Sturgeon will find opponents (in the Conservative Party, at least, if not Labour which is currently in another fankle, this time over who will replace departed leader Kezia Dugdale) emboldened by the General Election result.
Opposition leader Ruth Davidson has advanced her party’s position by establishing the Tories as the Union’s fiercest defenders. In these postIndyref days of constitutional division, a vote for the Conservatives was
some-‘ a vote against another referendum.
With the prospect of that ballot gone, the Tories will want to turn their attention to day-to-day politics which have been overshadowed by the constitutional debate for so long.
As if the First Minister didn’t have enough to worry about, the last thing she needs is one asking, what it is that her Government does, exactly?
In 2016, it emerged the parliament had not passed a single piece of legislation in a year, a period of political celibacy broken only by the necessary passing of a Budget Bill, which is little more than parliamentary housekeeping.
Ministers have been so focused in recent years on attempts to break up the United Kingdom that they have simply not had time to get on with the mundane business of reforming and improving public services.
Miss Sturgeon returns to Holyrood as the First Minister of a country with an under-performing economy, a health service struggling to cope with demand and schools which continue to fail so many children.
After a decade in power, Miss Sturgeon can no longer credibly blame previous Labour-led governments for every failure in service delivery.
The SNP’s record in power is a wonder of misdirection. Early, eye-catching policies such as free tuition fees and free prescriptions created the impression of a dynamic political machine, ready and willing to make radical decisions.
In fact, behind those big ticket policies, the SNP adopted a cagey, managerial approach. Limited talent among the Ministerial ranks and a fear of scaring the horses before 2014’s referendum collided to create a Government that talked a radical game while in reality it was cautious, sometimes to the point of inactivity.
Deputy First Minister John Swinney – by some margin the Government’s most capable Minister – appears to have made little impact on parent and teacher confidence since taking on the education brief last year. The rhetoric is fine, but Mr Swinney is bereft of policies.
Miss Davidson will want to keep the pressure on him. He is the most important member of Miss Sturgeon’s team, a crucial source of support and counsel, and if he can be bogged down in having to explain precisely how he is going to turn around appallingly high levels of innumeracy and illiteracy, the Tory leader will consider that a success.
If Miss Sturgeon reshuffles her cabinet, her options will be limited. There is no abundance of talent on the SNP benches (and, to be fair, the same could be said for the Labour and Tory groups) so the First Minister doesn’t have much to play with.
It is unthinkable that Miss Sturgeon would move Mr Swinney. The First Minister has said she wishes her Government to be judged on its stewardship of Scotland’s education system and shuffling Mr Swinney out of the job would condemn him as a failure.
So political necessity means the First Minister has to leave her deputy exposed as a target for opposition politicians. One Tory source says the party ‘will go after Mr Swinney every day about the state of schools’.
The Conservative leader’s job will be made easier by the search for a replacement for Kezia Dugdale which will distract Labour. While that contest plays out, Scottish politics will be Sturgeon vs Davidson.
That will delight Miss Davidson. She wants the next Holyrood election to be about the SNP’s record rather than the constitution. She will pitch herself as a candidate for First Minister and if the three main parties get near to equal shares of the vote, she might yet get the job.
Nicola Sturgeon is a clever politician and opponents who assume she will not return to Holyrood having corrected her pre-summer wobble are kidding themselves. She will not limp back into the debating chamber, she will stride.
What drama there is to come in the months ahead. The First Minister must find a way of reconnecting with voters who drifted away from the SNP over its constitutional obsession, while Miss Davidson must win over those for whom backing the Tories has long been a heresy.
Ruth Davidson is the only credible contender to replace Miss Sturgeon as First Minister. A long-shot, maybe, but she’s up for the challenge.
Not so very long ago, the SNP laughed off the prospects of a Tory revival in Scotland. They may be about to find out – painfully – how wrong they were.
Tory leader will want to turn spotlight onto the day to day issues