Voters don’t believe May could win the next election

TORY voters do not believe Theresa May will be able to fulfil her vow to stay on in No 10 and fight the next Election – and feel their best hope of winning would be under a new leader.

Nor do the public believe she has the guts to walk away with no deal if the fractious Brexit negotiations collapse.

They are among the main findings of a poll from Survation – the only pollsters to predict the General Election correctly – for The Mail on Sunday.

It is the first survey since the Prime Minister’s surprise ‘I’m not quitting’ declaration during her trade trip to Japan last week.

In addition to showing Labour with a five-point lead over the Conservatives, our poll shows voters believe that, if Mrs May and Jeremy Corbyn both lead their parties into the Election due by 2022, Corbyn will win.

There is no uncertainty as to who the Tories should turn to if they wish to revive their fortunes: Boris Johnson.

The Foreign Secretary is the clear favourite heir to May among the public as a whole, and significantly, among people who voted Conservative in June.

More surprisingly, his nearest leadership rival is ‘hard Brexiteer’ Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Chancellor Philip Hammond is third favourite to succeed May, followed by Brexit Secretary David Davis and Home Secretary Amber Rudd.

About four in ten Tory voters say it is unthinkable May will lead the party at the next Election; one in three believe it is possible.

A total of 27 per cent of Tories say replacing her would give them a better chance of winning the next Election; 19 per cent say it would make it less likely.

A total of 11 per cent of Tories want Mrs May to stand down this year; 26 per cent say she should do so after Brexit in 2019; and 54 per cent say she should lead them into the next Election.

The poll also suggests voters are unconvinced by her tough talk on Brexit, specifically her commitment to walk away if she is not satisfied with the deal offered by Brussels. Nearly half of those surveyed say she is ‘bluffing’, against fewer than one in five who believe her.

The scepticism is shared by Tory supporters: 35 per cent say she is ‘bluffing’ compared to 14 per cent who say will go through with it.

Corbyn’s decision to back staying in the single market and customs union in a transitional period after Britain leaves the EU is supported by 42 per cent of voters, with 28 per cent against. Asked if the Prime Minister should follow suit, 37 per cent of Conservatives urge her to do so against 46 per cent who say she should not.

Survation interviewed 1,046 people online last week.