WHAT’S REALLY GOING ON IN THE BREXIT CRISIS... BY BRITAIN’S BEST-INFORMED POLITICAL WRITERS
PM’s top aide calls for snap poll to horror of Chief Whip Senior Tory MP: We’ve all had it if she goes to country
THERESA MAY is today weighing up what one ally describes as ‘a menu of equally unpalatable options’ – any one of which could lead to the swift collapse of her stricken Government.
Her exhausted Downing Street operation is staring at an invidious choice if her deal is voted down again this week: either accept the likely bidding of MPs and keep the UK in a customs union – thus splitting her party down the middle – or turn her face against the Commons by calling a ‘kamikaze’ Election.
A further option – leaving the EU with No Deal – was heavily defeated when the Commons voted on it earlier this month.
Calls for the Prime Minister to trigger an Election immediately have been led by Mrs May’s Political Secretary Stephen Parkinson, who has argued that ‘events will lead to one anyway so we might as well be on the front foot’.
Opposition to a snap poll is being orchestrated by Chief Whip Julian Smith, who has said he is fighting it with ‘every sinew in his body’.
Even those advisers who lean towards calling an Election cannot decide if Mrs May should lead the campaign, or whether a leadership contest should be compressed into a few days and decided only by MPs at Westminster.
The Cabinet is equally divided, with Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd, Chancellor Philip Hammond, Justice Secretary David Gauke and Business Secretary Greg Clark all urging Mrs May to accept a customs union – with the implicit threat that they will resign if she does not.
But Cabinet Brexiteers, orchestrated by Commons Leader Andrea Leadsom, are implacably opposed and are likely to quit if Mrs May starts to negotiate membership of a customs union with the EU.
Ms Leadsom’s ‘pizza club’ – which she founded last year to discuss Brexit strategy over takeaways in her Commons room – agreed yesterday to block efforts to join a customs union. A senior Government source said: ‘Theresa is trapped between aides and Ministers, all urging her with equal passion to do different things.’
The pressure has been ramped up by the letter sent by 170 Brexit-supporting Conservatives demanding the UK leaves the EU on April 12 ‘with or without a deal’, and asking for assurances that Mrs May will not commit the country to a long extension or participating in the European Parliament elections on May 23. Last night, there were reports that the letter was organised by Ms Leadsom and also signed by other Cabinet Ministers including Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
A source close to one of the letter’s signatories said last night: ‘The letter reaffirmed our commitment to the manifesto, and to the PM’s own determination to seek a short extension to Article 50 that avoids the EU elections.’
The Chief Whip’s opposition to an Election – which is shared by No10 Chief of Staff Gavin Barwell – increased after he was briefed about Mr Corbyn’s plans to hit Mrs May with a ‘decapitation strategy’ if an Election is called.
Tory whips say Labour has drawn up plans to target a string of the party’s biggest stars – including Boris Johnson, Ms Rudd and exleader Iain Duncan Smith – and will pour thousands of activists into Tory seats in London and the South of England that are ‘vulnerable’. One Tory MP in the South East was overheard admitting at Westminster last week that ‘we’ve all had it’ if an Election was called soon.
Labour is also ready to table a vote of no-confidence in Mrs May’s Government this week if it senses that Tory arch-Brexiteers will vote to bring down the Prime Minister.
However, Labour’s battle plan was last night dismissed as ‘bravado’ by one of its own Shadow Ministers, who claimed the party was simply not ready to fight an Election. And party insiders also warn that Labour could lose all seven of its Scottish seats, effectively destroying any hopes Mr Corbyn has of getting a Commons majority.
Mrs May’s Election threats have sent a shiver down the spine of many Tory MPs in the South East defending thin or vulnerable majorities. Top of Mr Corbyn’s attack list is Ms Rudd’s Hastings and Rye seat, where she is defending a wafer-thin 346 majority over Labour. Her role as Work and Pensions Secretary makes her doubly vulnerable, say Corbyn strategists. But Labour boasts it can also claim the scalp of would-be party leader Mr Johnson in his Uxbridge seat in West London. He is defending a 5,034 majority but Labour’s vote locally has soared in recent years.
Also in the Labour firing line are former Education Secretary Justine Greening in Putney (majority just 1,554 over Labour) and Mr Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader. He is defending a majority of only 2,438 in Chingford and Woodford Green. One senior Labour MP said last night: ‘London is basically a Labour city and the enthusiasm for Corbyn is still running very high. All those top Tories are going to struggle to cling on if Mrs May does fire the Election starting gun any time soon.’
The party is also aiming to eject Labour defectors in the new Change UK independent group, including Chuka Umunna in Streatham, South London.
Some Labour figures scoffed at the ‘decapitation’ claims, with one
warning any gains in the South would be ‘cancelled out’ by losses in the North. One said: ‘Now we’ve started openly backing a second referendum much more than before, we’re really losing Brexiteer votes in the North.
‘When and if the Election comes, it really will be a case of holding on to what we have rather than making gains.’ Labour has 245 seats against the Tories’ 314.
The Labour plans emerged as Mr Corbyn declared it was time for ‘the sensible people’ to take over talks with the EU – even though he sparked fury from many Brexit voters last week by ordering his MPs to vote down Mrs May’s deal.
Mr Corbyn also refused to say whether he would offer an option to remain in the EU during a second round of indicative votes in the Commons tomorrow.
Speaking in Newport, South Wales, ahead of this week’s by-election, he accused Mrs May of ‘bullying and threatening people’.