England might just be about to mess up another World Cup
IT WAS not supposed to be like this. England were not meant to be heading into their last three group games poring over permutations for the World Cup semi-finals.
They were supposed to be flexing their muscles. They were supposed to be preparing their assault on the trophy.
Perhaps we should have known better. English sport and World Cups have, after all, often made uneasy bedfellows.
But due to Friday’s shock defeat by Sri Lanka at Headingley, Tuesday’s game against Australia at Lord’s has assumed proportions England hoped it would not.
Lose that one and the fixtures against India and New Zealand loom as deal-breakers.
England have provided some of the highlights of this tournament: Ben Stokes’ catch against South Africa, the batting of Joe Root, the pace of Jofra Archer and Mark Wood, Eoin Morgan’s world-record 17 sixes against Afghanistan.
But they have also fallen victim to the only two upsets. The two extremes are still an unsettling feature of this entertaining side.
Yet, after all the groundbreaking work of the last four years, after the transformation from global laughing-stock at one World Cup to favourites at another, the possibility that they could miss out on a place in the last four is unthinkable for the hosts.
The odds remain in their favour. Two wins over the next 11 days will almost certainly be enough to qualify. Even one victory may do the job, given that fifth-placed Sri Lanka are two points behind them, have a vastly inferior net run-rate and must still play India.
Bangladesh are also in the mix and there is still time for a late run from the lower reaches.
But the fact remains that England have not beaten Australia, India or New Zealand at a World Cup since March 1992, when the irrepressible Ian Botham had one final fling against the Aussies, taking four for 31 and hitting 53 at Sydney.
Incredibly, they haven’t beaten the Kiwis since 1983. During these next three games, they are going to have to lay a ghost to rest — and preferably two.
Their defeat at Trent Bridge by Pakistan — a team they had just beaten 4-0 — could probably be ascribed to a dropped catch by Jason Roy, who missed Mohammad Hafeez on 14. He went on to make 84 in a 14-run win.
But to lose to Sri Lanka when they were chasing only 233 felt as if the pressure of a World Cup was doing its work — a phenomenon flagged up before the tournament by Indian captain Virat Kohli.
Back then, the English batsmen were encouraging notions they might breach the 500 barrier. On Friday, even half of that total would have been plenty.
Asked whether his side’s 20-run loss to Sri Lanka in Leeds was the product of nerves, coach Trevor Bayliss could not entirely dismiss the notion.
‘I honestly don’t know,’ he said. ‘I think we just took it a little bit easy with the bat, thinking we just needed to bat a bit of time and put together a partnership.
‘We forgot about the process we actually go through to put those partnerships together.
‘That puts a team under pressure towards the back end.’
The hesitancy they showed in that defeat, when Stokes accounted for 11 of their 20 boundaries, will — if repeated — be seized on by an Australian side who have so far lost only to India.
‘We have been in this situation before and it hasn’t stopped us coming out and playing well in the next game,’ added Bayliss.
‘We’ll be looking to bounce back. We know what we can expect from those three good teams to come, so our minds will be on the job.’
If the prospect of facing David Warner, Steve Smith, Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc at Lord’s doesn’t sharpen England’s focus, they could be in for another nasty surprise.
Meanwhile, in yesterday’s groupstage action, Afghanistan went so close to beating India, coming up just 11 runs short in Southampton.
New Zealand edged to a nervy five-run win over West Indies in a thrilling encounter at Old Trafford.