Pitiful sight of a leader running out of bluffs...

ANYONE harbouring the slender hope that Brexit might mean a period of relative calm in our national debate was to be sorely disappointed. The UK’s departure from the EU has been a plentiful source of rancour and division since the Leave campaign won in 2016. And First Minister Nicola Sturgeon wasn’t going to let all that good anger go to waste.

In a speech to mark Brexit on Friday, Ms Sturgeon said what was needed now was more constitutional upheaval, this time in the shape of a second referendum on independence.

As Brexit plays out, we can expect an angry commentary from Ms Sturgeon, who is convinced that she can turn Scots’ support for EU membership into backing for independence.

But despite the passion of her speech on Friday, reality refuses to resemble the description provided by the First Minister.

On the matter of independence, Ms Sturgeon appears positively deluded. Since being on the losing side of the 2014 referendum, she has hardly let a day pass by without informing Scots that the case for independence grows stronger and that the correction of that Better Together victory is imminent.

The evidence might point to the majority of Scots continuing to support the maintenance of the Union but Ms Sturgeon isn’t thrown off balance by inconvenient facts. Instead, she tells us we hunger for independence or yearn for another referendum.

No matter the development in Scottish politics, it will be translated by her into support for independence. Tory numbers up? It shows we need independence to break free from the Conservative grip. Tory numbers down? The rejection of the Conservatives by Scots shows we need independence.

This doublethink may be applied to any and all situations. A healthy economy shows it is time for independence so that we might capitalise on existing success; a weak economy shows it’s time for independence so that we can make it stronger.

The First Minister, every inch the monomaniac that her mentor Alex Salmond ever was, has long since forgotten her promise to be a leader for all Scots, regardless of how they voted in the referendum.

She has made it abundantly clear that the views of the proUK majority should be ignored in favour of the relentless agitation for another referendum.

THE Nats can be sleekit about this issue. In advance of polling day in December, Ms Sturgeon urged a vote for the SNP as a vote in protest at Brexit but, once all the votes had been counted, the First Minister decided they were all, in fact, votes to break up the UK.

But, surely, this issue must be – if not dead – on hold for the time being? The simple fact of the matter remains that the authority to call another vote on the constitution lies with Westminster.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has made it abundantly clear that he has no intention of transferring the power to call a referendum to Edinburgh.

He argues that the majority of Scots made their preference known in what the SNP called a ‘once in a generation’ referendum in 2014 and polls continue to show the majority of Scots are opposed to independence.

On Friday, Ms Sturgeon said she had a mandate to call a referendum and that Scots – even those opposed to independence – want the chance to answer the question for a second time.

Even a cursory glance tells us Mr Johnson’s argument is the stronger. But even if that were not the case, there wouldn’t be a single thing Ms Sturgeon could do about it. If the UK Government decides there is to be no second independence referendum, that, I’m afraid, is that.

So, if Ms Sturgeon and those around her know there is no chance of a second independence referendum this year, why is she determined to press on as if there will be one?

Well, there are lots of things that the First Minister would very much like not to have to talk about.

She doesn’t want to get bogged down in uncomfortable debate about the NHS, does she?

That would only lead to awkward questions about staff crises, crumbling facilities and missed waiting-time targets.

Nor does she care to have to explain herself on the matter of standards in schools.

It is easy to say, as Ms Sturgeon did, that you wish to be judged on your stewardship of the education system but it is quite another for people to actually do that. There is another reason Ms Sturgeon is rallying her troops right now. In only a few weeks’ time, her party will risk fracture over the trial on serious charges – all of which he denies – of Alex Salmond.

Ms Sturgeon and other senior figures may be estranged from the former leader but others remain fiercely loyal.

This being so, we should expect fresh rounds of infighting within the SNP.

On Friday, the First Minister said she was open to testing the Scottish parliament’s right to hold a referendum but I think it is unlikely that she will follow this path.

SHE still believes that for the result of any future referendum to be binding, the process must be beyond reproach and recognised, internationally, as legitimate. And so what we are witnessing is the rather pitiful sight of a leader, who is fast running out of bluffs, insisting to her loyal supporters that black is white.

Please, she implores them, continue to believe that I can give you the independence referendum you so desire.

One wonders for how long the First Minister will be able to play this game.

I suspect the answer is that she will have to maintain this line until the beginning of Mr Salmond’s trial in March, when those proceedings will dominate the headlines.

The First Minister is deluding herself over the staging of a second independence vote.

But given the bleak times ahead for the SNP, who can really blame her for taking a little holiday from reality?