Study exposes terrible effect of Beijing delays
CHINA might have cut the number of coronavirus cases by 95 per cent if it had acted immediately after notifying the World Health Organisation, says a study.
Even intervening a week earlier than it did could have slashed cases by two-thirds, according to research by British and Chinese experts for Southampton University.
Instead, Communist Party leaders tried to cover up the eruption of the virus in the city of Wuhan, with catastrophic consequences for the rest of the world.
The impact is underlined by a further study into 32,583 cases in Wuhan, which shows the consequences of China’s failure to curb infection over the lunar New Year, when hundreds of millions of people moved around the country.
The study shows a trickle of confirmed cases in early January, followed by an explosion in the days after the Chunyun festive period, believed to be the world’s biggest annual migration of people.
Lianchao Han, a leading prodemocracy activist, said: ‘We don’t know if this disease could have been checked, but certainly the Chinese dictatorship failed to take the actions expected of a responsible government.’
Covid-19 is thought to have emerged by mid-November, with the World Health Organisation notified on December 31. But Chinese doctors who raised the alarm were arrested, scientists were ordered not to share data and evidence of human transmission was suppressed until January 20.
Leaked documents last week show that even after Chinese officials knew they faced a major epidemic, they delayed warning the public for six days. During this period, Wuhan even held a mass banquet for 40,000 citizens. Over the following two weeks, no new cases were registered despite hundreds of people with the virus going into hospital and medical staff becoming infected – a clear sign of human transmission.
The Southampton University study found there could have been 67 times more cases if officials had not imposed tough measures such as a lockdown, social isolation and travel restrictions.
But the study concludes: ‘If interventions in the country could have been conducted one week, two weeks, or three weeks earlier, cases could have been reduced by 66 per cent, 86 per cent and 95 per cent respectively – significantly limiting geographical spread of the disease.’
Southampton University’s Professor Andy Tatem, said: ‘If it was kept to a small number of cases and the Chinese authorities recognised the disease along with its dangers, and they could have locked down before their new year, it is possible it could have been contained.’
Professor Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London, added: ‘We can hold China responsible for how it dealt with this disease once it knew about human-to-human transmission – and there is clear evidence that was from the end of December.’