It’s chaos... So where in the world should you invest now?

(if you DON’T have a crystal ball)

AT THE moment it feels like there are only two types of country: nations that have handled coronavirus well and those facing criticism because they have not. Although this story has a long way to run and our assessments may look very different in 12 months, it makes sense for investors to make some judgments now.

In recent days, we’ve seen New Zealand and Australia agree on a ‘travel bubble’ between the two nations with lockdowns easing and discussions on cross-country tourism happening again. Germany, too, has announced further easing of the country’s lockdown after successfully flattening the curve of Covid-19 deaths and infections.

These nations, as well as China and South Korea, have been feted for their handling (with understandable reservations in the case of China) of the disease, and are in a better position than most to restart their economies. This may lead to opportunities for UK investors who should certainly aim for globally diversified portfolios rather than ones filled with UK stocks – a mistake many investors make.

Tom Stevenson is investment director for personal investing at financial services company Fidelity International. He says: ‘In the absence of a crystal ball, all you can do as an investor is ensure you’re exposed to a range of markets around the world. In doing so, you can over time capture the outperformers and minimise the risk of being overexposed to those markets that lag behind.’

He adds: ‘The trajectory of the recovery is as unpredictable as that from the 1987 crash. There are many variables, not least uncertainty about subsequent ‘waves’ of the virus until a vaccine is found – and the various approaches to testing that have been implemented by different countries.

‘Some economies will recover faster than others, and only by being well-diversified can investors ensure they’re best placed to benefit from any sustained economic and market rebound.’

Within Europe, Germany has led the way in its response to Covid-19. Rebecca O’Keeffe, head of investment at wealth manager Interactive Investor, says: ‘It was well prepared and well organised, with citizens happy to respect and follow government guidelines.

‘As a result, active cases of coronavirus are at less than 60 per cent of their peak and are falling steadily, even as the country begins to emerge from lockdown. The economy is on the move again.’

Direct exposure to the German stock market is easiest to achieve using an exchange traded fund that tracks the performance of the large-cap DAX index – Germany’s answer to the FTSE 100 Index.

One of the most popular is Xtrackers DAX because it is among the largest – and therefore most liquid – funds of its kind, as well as the cheapest with an ongoing annual charge of 0.09 per cent.

For those wanting a more broadly invested European fund, O’Keeffe suggests Liontrust Sustainable Future European Growth.

The fund has generated a small return over the past year of 3.2 per cent despite the market disruption caused. Its largest country exposure is Germany with its largest holding being Roche – a manufacturer of coronavirus test kits.

Investing in Australia and New Zealand is best done through funds and stock market-listed investment trusts, most of which will invest across the Asia-Pacific region.

James Thom is manager of investment trust Aberdeen New Dawn. He has been investing in businesses across Asia for more than 30 years and says he sees ‘quite a bit of investment opportunity’ in both Australia and New Zealand.

He says: ‘Historically, New Dawn has been relatively light in these markets, preferring stocks in higher growth emerging markets that have more appealing long-term growth potential.

‘But with the abrupt sell-off in equity markets in Australia and New Zealand on account of the Covid-19 outbreak, we’ve seen quite compelling value emerge in these markets and have been able to buy high quality businesses at attractive valuations.’

The trust has invested in domestic travel businesses, such as Auckland International Airports, which should benefit from the internal loosening of the lockdown – as well as global businesses, such as global resources company BHP.

NEW Dawn has seen losses of nearly 12 per cent over the past year, but has generated profits of 12 per cent over the past three. Chinese equities comprise the trust’s main holdings.

Yoojeong Oh is manager of investment trust Aberdeen Asian Income. She says Australia and New Zealand are ‘high quality dividend markets’. The trust was already overweight in these markets, but has changed its holdings to concentrate more on income-yielding utility companies and financially robust real estate companies.

She adds: ‘Although the near term looks tough, the dividend payers in Australia and New Zealand look attractive on a long-term view.’