AS COVID CASES CLIMB, WHY YOU SHOULDN’T PANIC... YET

CASES of Covid-19 have been slowly creeping up in the UK since early July.

This may seem alarming, but it has not corresponded with an increase in the number of people dying from the virus.

This can be seen in the graph, top right. The yellow wave shows the number of people who tested positive for Covid-19, while the red wave denotes deaths.

In April, at the height of the pandemic in the UK, as the number of cases rose steeply, the number of deaths did too. But now, despite a rise in cases, the number of deaths barely registers. In fact, on August 30, when 1,715 cases were reported, there was just one Covid-19 death. On September 4 there were 1,940 positive tests and ten deaths.

It’s important to note there have been significant changes in who is being tested. At the start of the pandemic, only patients taken to hospital with suspected Covid-19 were tested. Anyone who was self-isolating at home could not get a test. But since April, the Government began widening testing, allowing anyone with Covid symptoms to book a slot at a drive-in or walk-in centre.

The number being tested has risen steadily since then. The increase in cases is now in the community – hospital numbers continue to dwindle. And the rise in cases corresponds, broadly, with an increase in tests being done. The more you test, the more positive results you pick up.

In France and Spain the rise in cases is more marked.

As the graphs show, the number of confirmed positive tests have soared in recent weeks. France had 8,975 new cases on September 4 and 18 Covid-19 deaths. Spain reported 10,476 new cases on the same day, more than it did at the height of the pandemic – and 184 deaths. Back in April, at its peak, 1,198 people died in one day.

Increased testing means we have a more accurate picture of what is going on. But while cases are increasing, there’s no need for panic just yet.