What’s happening in Israel, and could UK go the same way?

Q

Why have things become so bad in

Israel after Covid was so well controlled there?

A

They were the champions of the pandemic, the first to vaccinate nearly 80 per cent of their population of over 12-year-olds. Much of the country ditched their masks as far back as April – there was simply no need for them.

But today, they are in the grip of a fourth wave, with daily cases rocketing from roughly 2,000 at the start of August, to a six-month high of more than 8,000. Many of the infections are in unvaccinated people – but not all.

Hospitalisations and deaths are also rising, with 120 people dying last week, which is similar to last September’s death rate, when the nation was in the midst of a lockdown.

The country is now racing to deliver booster shots, with

1.2 million over-50s having now received their third jab. Masks and other restrictions are back, with everyone over three years old required to show proof of two jabs or a negative test before entering public places.

But how did things go so wrong? Experts think that there are multiple reasons for the turnaround.

One main reason is the choice of interval between the two jabs. The UK opted for eight to 12 weeks, while in Israel, doses of the Pfizer/ BioNTech vaccine were administered three to four weeks apart.

British studies have since shown that the so-called ‘sweet spot’ of dosing intervals is roughly eight weeks, offering long-lasting protection against the highly transmissible Delta variant of the coronavirus.

With this longer regime, study participants were found to have a greater number of fighter T-cells, which are important for long-term immune memory, as well as a higher number of neutralising antibodies, compared to a four-week interval.

What’s more, with the majority of Israelis fully jabbed so early in the year, immunity is starting to wane: last week, a University of Oxford study found that protection from infection granted by the Pfizer vaccine dropped after 90 days – from 90 per cent to 78 per cent.

Israel lifted all Covid restrictions at the start of June, scrapping its ‘green pass’ system – which limited entry to venues based on vaccination status – and caps on gatherings. So, as immunity began to drop, social gatherings peaked.

This combination of factors, including the widely circulating Delta variant, has resulted in an unexpected surge in cases.

This in turn has fuelled an uptick in severe illness in the 15 per cent of the Israeli population yet to be vaccinated, along with a very small number of those who were jabbed at the beginning of the year.

Q

Could the same thing happen here?

A

Maybe. Some have suggested it could be only a matter of time before the UK catches up with

Israel’s virus trajectory.

Last week, Professor Eran Segan, adviser to the Israeli government on the pandemic response, urged Britain not to make the same mistakes as Israel, and to begin a booster programme as soon as possible.

Immunity could begin to wane in thousands of Britons by the end of the summer, causing infections to rise at a similarly sudden rate.

But Britons may benefit from a number of protective factors.

Firstly, the UK’s longer delay between vaccine doses, which scientists think may grant us longer-lasting protection. Also, while Israel exclusively used the Pfizer jab, the UK has offered a combination of AstraZeneca, Moderna and Pfizer.

Some studies have suggested that there may be a slower decline in immunity over time with two doses of the AstraZeneca jab, compared to Pfizer. What’s more, some have argued that if the UK was to follow the same pattern as Israel, we’d be seeing signs already.

While cases in Britain rose sharply in July, followed by an increase in hospitalisations and deaths, the numbers quickly plateaued.

According to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics, infections are decreasing or levelling off in the majority of areas in England and Scotland, but increasing in Wales in Northern Ireland. Hospitalisations and deaths remain low.

The Government’s plan to vaccinate all 16- and 17-yearolds before the new school term begins in September, while simultaneously offering boosters to the most vulnerable, should keep hospital cases under control.