SNP’S CASE FOR INDEPENDENCE IS WEAKER THAN IN 2014
Think-tank’s withering forecast for independence: Lower pay, more joblessness, higher prices
SCOTTISH independence would hit wages, trigger higher unemployment and make Scots poorer, international experts have warned.
Capital Economics, a specialist think-tank, warned that the argument for leaving the UK is ‘even more challenging’ now than it was in 2014.
Separation would see the Scottish economy fall even further behind the UK’s, damage people’s pay packets or leave them unemployed, and create ‘an ever weaker currency’, driving up costs at the shops, holidays abroad and mortgage payments.
It also warned that while an ‘independent Scotland might ultimately prosper’, the journey would be ‘long and difficult’. Under the SNP’s stewardship, the Scottish economy has repeatedly lagged behind the UK’s – despite facing similar challenges, such as the Covid pandemic and Brexit.
That means the starting point for independence has become even more difficult and the SNP would have to impose immediate spending cuts ‘to prevent a vicious circle of rising inflation and an ever-weaker currency’.
Last week, The Scottish Mail on Sunday revealed that Professor Mark Blyth, one of Nicola Sturgeon’s own economic advisers, warned that independence would be ‘Brexit times ten’ and would ‘hurt a lot’.
Now another report, by Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, has delivered a further withering assessment.
He warned: ‘Brexit, the deterioration in Scotland’s fiscal situation and the continued lack of an easy option for the currency have made the economwants
FORMER SNP Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill has attacked his former party as being ‘shameful’ and ‘authoritarian’.
The MP was elected as deputy leader of Alba at the party’s first major conference yesterday, with Alex Salmond confirmed as leader.
The East Lothian MP, pictured, who defected to Alba this year, said: ‘The SNP has sought to entrench power for themselves rather than delivering independence.
‘Bringing in legislation that’s harmful and presiding over actions which are shameful.
‘A party I was once proud to be a member of, but which now acts in an authoritarian and undemocratic manner towards the people, never mind its members.’
ics of Scottish independence even more challenging than at the time of the first referendum in 2014.’
He added that the ‘resulting fiscal squeeze [from breaking up Britain] would restrain economic growth and mean that in its first five to ten years, an independent Scotland is more likely to fall further behind the rest of the UK than catch it up’.
Mr Dales wrote: ‘Monetary and fiscal policy would then need to tighten to prevent a vicious circle of rising inflation and an ever-weaker currency.
‘This would lead to lower wage growth and higher unemployment.’
Mr Dales also warned that Brexit has actually made the case for independence harder, as it would force an independent Scotland to choose between a close relationship with the rest of the UK, which receives 60 per cent of Scottish exports, or the EU, which receives 19 per cent.
‘There are two options,’ he wrote. ‘If Scotland wants to keep the current frictionless trade with rUK, then it would need to keep the current barriers to trade with the EU. If Scotland to have freer trade with the EU by rejoining, then it would need to accept some barriers to trade with rUK. The SNP’s commitment to “rejoining the EU as soon as possible” implies Scotland would choose the second option.
‘But even if we put aside the fact that this would create trade frictions on 60 per cent of Scotland’s exports in order to ease frictions on 19 per cent of its exports, rejoining the EU would not be seamless. EU law states that only independent countries can apply for membership. That means Scotland would probably have to conclude its separation negotiations with rUK before it could even apply to become an EU member.
‘Typically there is a five-year gap between applying and becoming a member. As such, Scotland may have to spend some years outside both the UK’s and the EU’s trading regimes.
‘In 2014, this wasn’t a worry as it was assumed that Scotland’s membership of the EU via the UK would just switch to EU membership in its own right.’
He added that ‘the further an independent Scotland moves from rUK, the more likely some businesses based in Scotland move to rUK instead’.
Ms Sturgeon is expected to ramp up the rhetoric on her campaign to break up Britain when she addresses the SNP conference tomorrow.
But opposition politicians are pleading with her to focus on jobs and recovery from Covid instead.
Liz Smith MSP, Tory finance spokesman, said: ‘This important report shows that there simply isn’t a credible economic case for independence. Every set of statistics make it abundantly clear that Scotland would be much worse off under independence, compared to being an integral part of a strong United Kingdom.’