THE UNSEEN FIGURES THAT SHOW CITY ARE CREDIBLE PLAY-OFF CANDIDATES
THE Michael O’neill revolution is beginning to impact on Stoke City’s bottom line as his side sit with 21 points from 11 matches. It’s a healthy position to be in, especially when viewed against quarter-way points gained in their recent Championship campaigns. Sixteenth after 11 games with 13 points in 2018/19 was a comparative luxury compared to rock bottom with just five points in 2019/20, and 18 points was good enough for eighth place in O’neill’s first full season in charge.
Historically, 21 points from 11 matches has more often led to a successful final position. Twice since 2004, such starts have been turned into titles, on six more occasions a side has won automatic promotion and five more teams have entered the play-offs.
We can also take a different angle of analysis.
Below are the expected goals from Stoke City’s 11 Championship games in 2021/22. goals accrued in each match and the orange bar is the amount conceded. If the white dot is in the blue, Stoke City ‘won’ the xg battle, if it is in the orange, then the opponent created higher quality and quantity of chances in the game.
It also shows the unpredictability of a low-scoring sport, such as football, because City only drew with Barnsley, despite dominating the chance creation, while they won against Huddersfield, creating inferior opportunities. Overall, the Potters have a process that matches their achieved points total.
The current fourth position is well deserved and if we delve deeper into the shot data there’s even more signs of sustainable improvement. A side’s expected goals per match is the aggregate of every scoring opportunity in the game, but that total can be arrived at in various way.
Stoke’s overall record is 20 big chances fashioned against 11 allowed – and six of those concessions occurred in one game, Fulham’s comprehensive 3-0 victory. Stoke have kept six teams at arm’s length in the defensive third and limited three others to just a single good opportunity per game. That’s a grinding dominance that will produce points long term.
It is slightly exasperating that on-field dominance doesn’t always translate into three points (Barnsley, for example), but even a high value chance has a nonzero likelihood that the chance is missed or saved.
The phrase ‘he must score’ is largely redundant outside of match commentary. Fewer than three per cent of non-penalty scoring opportunities are more likely to be scored than not and there’s a growing acceptance that goals, even from good opportunities, do not arrive at regular, evenly spaced intervals. Stoke City has a modern, forward thinking manager, talent who can manufacture high quality chances, and a stingy rearguard. It’s a competitive package and the brightest since City’s waning days in the Premier League.