LATE CAMEO HIGHLIGHTS HOW IMPORTANT POWELL IS TO CITY
STOKE City’s impressive late season run came to an end at play-off seeking Middlesbrough but it did feature a second-half cameo comprising five attempts and a goal from returning Nick Powell.
Powell was on course for his best season at Stoke before injuries limited his campaign to just 13 league starts. There have been quad problems in August and March and a crack in a fibula in October. He has still posted stats of 4.5 expected goals and six actual scores gained in just 1,174 minutes of Championship play. That equates to an expected goal once every 2.7 full matches - or about 17 if he had stayed fit for all 46.
He’s been impressive over his three seasons at the bet365 comprising a weighty 6,450 minutes. His nonpenalty xg is 0.27 per full game, which is very good for someone who isn’t an out and out striker. That’s an expected goal every 3.7 full games
- or about 12 over the course of a season - and he’s taken seven goal attempts every three full matches.
He has the happy habit of getting on the end of chances, in and around the six-yard box, every year.
He does dilute the quality of his goal attempts with a fondness for shots from outside the box. But that has an upside by adding unpredictability to Stoke City’s offensive output, while keeping the opposition guessing and his shots aren’t without success.
One of his unique selling points is his aerial ability. 46 of his 157 attempts on goal have been headers and he’s found the back of the net for Stoke on nine occasions in the Championship from an xg of just 4.7. That’s contributed to Powell’s clinical finishing for the Potters, scoring five more goals than you’d expect from an average Championship player attempting the chances Powell has latched onto.
Usually, finishing overperformance is a red flag, it tends to regress towards the quality and quantity of chances a player attempts, but in this case, it may be good news going forward for Powell.
Overperforming aerially is more sustainable because some players have obvious advantages in stature and technique. The ability to contest well in the air sticks better from season to season than the ability to continually convert chances at a higher than usual rate with your feet.
Powell’s aerial skills also seep through into other areas of play. He competes in 8.5 aerial duels per game compared to just 2.5 for a typical attacking midfielder and he is successful in half of those, often against imposing central defenders, a rate well above other midfielders.
Stoke have missed Powell’s creativity. The quality of the scoring opportunities he had created prior to his absence in 21/22 has only been matched by Tymon and the set piece taking Vrancic and he was also a regular provider of chances, 17, mainly from regular play at a rate of three every two full matches.
Throughout his Championship career, Powell has looked to play the forward pass. Four in every 10 attempted passes go forward compared to a positional league
average of just three and he’s very much a risk, but reward, creative player who is adept at finding colleagues in difficult to reach positions. That’s another trait that is difficult to find in a player.
At just turned 28, he’s still considered a player in his prime and having played an average of just 17.5 full league and cup games per season over his career, he hasn’t been over worked, making him a prized Championship asset.
Mark Taylor is football data analyst for Infogol. You can follow him on Twitter at @Marktaylor0 or visit the Infogol website at www. infogol.net. All data from https:// www.infogol.net/en