Another winter of discontent coming with preparations already under way
City NHS bosses warn there is no guarantee next winter will be any better than this one, reports Phil Corrigan, as health services have started planning for the next surge and could be hit with ‘curveball’
STOKE-ON-TRENT NHS leaders say they can give no guarantees that next winter will be any less of an ordeal than the last few months.
North Staffordshire patients have had to put up with lengthy A&E waits over the winter with ambulances frequently left queueing for hours outside the Royal Stoke University Hospital.
A surge of flu admissions in December combined with longstanding problems with capacity and staffing shortages to create gridlock throughout the health and care system.
These pressures are now easing, with ambulances losing less than 400 hours a week at the Royal Stoke since the start of January, compared to more than 800 a week over much of last year.
Actions taken have included steps to improve the flow of patients through the hospital, and the use of national funding to boost community services allowing more patients to be discharged.
But NHS managers told elected members at Stoke-on-trent City Council that while planning for next winter had already started, there would still be underlying workforce issues as well as the potential for further ‘curveballs’.
Speaking to the adult social care, health intergration and wellbeing scrutiny committee, UHNM chief executive Tracy Bullock said this could mean another bad winter next year.
She said: “There is learning we can take from this winter. But can I give absolute assurance that next winter won’t be as bad as this winter? I don’t think I can. Why we can’t is that there are curveballs – nobody expected Covid years ago.
“We know already that we have a capacity and demand mismatch. We know already that we all have workforce gaps. None of those things are going to be 100 per cent resolved by next winter.
“I’m not going to recruit to all the nurses, doctors, physios, pharmacists and other staff I need – I doubt anyone is going to be able to recruit to all our workforce gaps.
“So while we’ve got the resources issues and the demand and capacity mismatch, unfortunately we can’t give any guarantee that next winter is going to be great.
“What I can assure you of is that we will work together to make sure we can mitigate as much of that as we possibly can.”
In a presentation to the committee, Peter Axon, interim chief executive at Staffordshire and Stoke-on-trent Integrated Care Board, explained the challenges that had faced the local NHS this winter, many of which were part of national trends.
And Mr Axon said there would still be factors beyond the control of the local NHS.
He said: “I think we are doing everything within our power and within our gift to be able to influence the situation. I know it sounds like a legal response, but I think we’re taking reasonable steps wherever we can to mitigate that pressure point going forward.
“Certain things are out of our control, such as national challenges. But where we do have the ability and the authority to be able to effect change, I think the plans we’ve put in place are doing that.
“There will always be the potential for a curveball. We need to be as flexible as we can to make sure we can address that as rapidly as possible.”