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THE UN SAYS THAT THE OZONE LAYER ABOVE THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL BE FULLY REPAIRED BY THE 2030S AND THE ENTIRE LAYER BY 2060
Three decades ago, scientists were sounding alarm bells over the parlous state of the ozone layer. It was suffering severe degradation due to man-made aerosol chemicals in the atmosphere.
It is now estimated that the layer will fully recover by 2060 – a turnaround that highlights what is possible with concerted global action.
Widespread concerns about the ozone layer – a fragile mass of gas in the stratosphere that shields Earth from harmful UV rays – were raised in the 1980s, when scientists found that it was shrinking due to the prevalence of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and halons. The gases were commonly used in aerosols and refrigerators. These warnings led to the signing in 1987 of the Montreal Protocol, which committed nations to reducing the production of such gases.
The UN estimates that the layer’s recovery could mean up to two million fewer cases of skin cancer every year. There are benefits for climate change, as well, as some of the gases that caused thinning of the ozone layer warmed the atmosphere, too.
However, the substances that have replaced CFCs (called HFCs) also contribute to climate change. As a result, at the time of going to press, 60 countries, but not yet the US, have ratified an addition to the Montreal Protocol. Called the Kigali amendment, this document agrees to cut production and consumption of HFCs by more than 80% over the next 30 years. Tina Birmpili, of the UN’s Ozone Secretariat, warns: “We can be proud of what we’ve achieved, but we must also focus on what more we can do.”