Expert: Clock is ticking and Russia has a decision to take
Russia’s massive military mobilisation around Ukraine’s border is time-limited and, one way or another, something will have to give, according to an expert in international relations.
Dr Matteo Fumagalli, of St Andrews University, said the Kremlin would be unable to sustain its current presence of hundreds of thousands of troops indefinitely. He said Vladimir Putin still had a number of options but the country’s sense of urgency may betray a concern about how long it can sustain such a build-up of troops.
“Russia’s sense of urgency may be designed to avoid procrastination and delayed talks or may be due to its awareness of the fact that it can neither endlessly build up its military presence nor keep them there forever,” he added. “At some point, it will have to reposition them and return some units to their original military districts.”
Predicting how the crisis might develop, Fumagalli said that as well as military options, Putin could choose to keep tensions on a political level by exposing divisions in Europe over how to respond.
These divisions, he said, could also drive an invasion, with Vladimir Putin asking: “If not now, when?”
“It is in Russia’s interest to keep the pressure up – and building – since it is getting the attention and the summits it craves, but there will be a moment where pressure will have to be let go. There is probably still some space for an additional escalation of tensions short of an actual invasion, but not much more as the risk of miscalculation and over-reaction also increases,” he said.