The Union buster? Experts predict PM Johnson will boost support for indy
Pollsters expect more Yessers if Tory favourite wins leadership race
Boris Johnson in Downing Street is likely to give support for Scottish independence a boost, according to experts. Johnson remains front-runner to become Prime Minister, a race which will be decided when the result of a poll of Tory members is revealed in three weeks’ time. A recent Panelbase poll found support for independence would jump to 53% if Johnson became leader, giving the Yes campaign a six-point lead.
That prompted former Prime Minister Gordon Brown to warn the Union was more at risk than it has ever been. Yesterday Johnson and Hunt both appeared before Conservative members at hustings in Carlisle.
Leading polling expert Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, said without the question of Johnson being Prime Minister, the survey would have shown support for the yes and no vote evenly balanced.
Many Scottish Conservatives – including leader Ruth Davidson – have thrown their weight behind Johnson’s leadership rival Jeremy Hunt, who has vowed never to allow the break-up of the UK.
Davidson last week challenged Johnson to apply his pledge to “do or die” on Brexit – a promise to get the UK out of Europe by October 31 no matter what – to preserving the Union instead.
Andy Maciver, director of political and media consultancy Message Matters, said there was no doubt Johnson as Prime Minister would benefit the independence movement.
He said: “He is the perfect Tory candidate for Nicola Sturgeon because it is all the things the SNP want a Tory to be – southern, rich, English nationalist and Leave campaigner.” Professor James Mitchell, chairman in public policy at Edinburgh University, said there would not automatically be a massive surge in support for independence and much of the impact would result from his handling of Brexit.