UN: world is warming even faster than feared
Global warming is happening faster than was previously feared and will break through a dismaying landmark a decade earlier than anticipated, the United Nations will reveal tomorrow.
The UN’S Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will show, following the most comprehensive study of climate change yet, that warming could reach the 1.5C threshold within 10 years, a decade earlier than anticipated three years ago.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed global warming must be limited to well below 2C and pledged to push for efforts to hold it to no more than a 1.5C increase on preindustrial levels.
The new forecast will be published tomorrow and it’s anticipated will form a key part of negotiations in the lead-up to the COP26 climate change conference in Glasgow in November.
Three years ago, the IPCC had 2030 at the most pessimistic end of its forecast for reaching 1.5C and suggested the increase would be reached between 2030 and 2052.
However, tomorrow’s report will suggest the increase will be reached at the quickest time anticipated, with the conclusion that global warming is accelerating.
The IPCC’S conclusion will warn of a greater than 50% chance of the world’s temperatures rising by more than the 1.5C within the next 10 years, with the planet now estimated to be about twothirds of the way towards reaching the threshold.
According to the World Meteorological Organisation, the average temperature will be at least 1C warmer than preindustrial levels over each of the next five years.
Speaking ahead of the report’s publication, Alok Sharma, the UK minister in charge of the COP26, said consequences of failure would be “catastrophic”.
He told the Observer: “I don’t think there’s any other word for it. You’re seeing on a daily basis what is happening across the world. Last year was the hottest on record, the last decade the hottest decade on record.”
He said the report would be explicit in suggesting time is running out to reverse global warming.
He said: “This is going to be the starkest warning yet that human behaviour is alarmingly accelerating global warming and this is why COP26 has to be the moment we get this right. We can’t afford to wait two years, five years, 10 years – this is the moment.
“I don’t think we’re out of time but I think we’re getting dangerously close to when we might be out of time.”
However, Sharma also voiced support for fossilfuel projects in the face of mounting criticism of plans to license new oil and gas fields, including a proposed field west of Shetland. He also rejected criticism of his international travel in recent months saying it was crucial to the success of the summit in Glasgow.