WHAT’S NEXT?

Vladimir Putin has confounded international observers by disguising his intentions and deflecting attention from his true objectives. And the Russian president’s plan after invading Ukraine remains uncertain. There are a number of possibilities.

Seize Donetsk and Luhansk

Before the invasion of Ukraine, Putin announced he was recognising the independence of two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, the separatist-controlled regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. If resistance in Kyiv proves too strong, Putin may choose to annex those regions as he did with Crimea in 2014 and return his troops to the border.

Partition Ukraine

Putin might hope to split Ukraine into two countries, as Germany was after the Second World War, with eastern Ukraine part of the Russian sphere of influence and western Ukraine more dependent on Europe.

Take Kyiv

In a divided country, Russian forces would take control of major cities in the east, such as Kharkiv, Dnipro and Mariupol but another option for Putin would be to take Kyiv too and make it the capital of a new East Ukraine.

Create a pro-russian state

Putin has previously claimed that Ukraine “is not a country” and that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people – a single whole”. If he can seize control all of Ukraine, he may intend to install a pro-moscow puppet regime in Kyiv.

Keep going

If Putin secures victory over Ukraine without too many Russian casualties, he may feel emboldened to invade other countries. Putin has described the break-up of the Soviet Union as the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th Century”, and people in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania fear they may be his next target.