DAVID SOLE’S RUGBY VIEW

Understanding the possibilities of qualification for the European Cup quarter-finals is requiring the assistance of Artificial Intelligence and a few gigabytes of computing power, such is the complexity of the competition.

Before a ball was kicked in this weekend’s round of matches, the permutations were almost endless.

In most pools, there are no clear winners as either of the top two teams could finish in first position.

And then it really gets complicated as you find out who are the next three qualifiers as “second best” runners-up.

What is particularly interesting in the tables at the moment is the split of countries that the clubs come from.

France dominate with four clubs, while there isn’t a Welsh club to be seen close to the top of any group.

What’s more, despite the English Premiership being heralded as the pre-eminent and toughest club competition in the world, only Saracens look like qualifying for the knock-out stages of the competition.

This is particularly interesting, when you compare it to the relative standings in the pecking order of World Rugby.

Of the home nations, Ireland are the highest-ranked and three of their provincial teams will be pushing for qualification.

‘ Trying to apply logic to results . . . is often a foolish thing to do

Munster, who have an excellent pedigree in Europe, top their group, while Leinster who have also won the silverware sit second, behind Toulouse – another club with an excellent heritage in European competitions.

Yet when you try and correlate this form with the form in international rugby, a few discrepancies emerge.

How can Wales win all four of their autumn internationals, including victories over the Wallabies and Springboks, yet not feature at all in the European Cup knock out?

Conversely France, who look like having Toulouse, Castres, Racing 92 and Montpellier all competing for quarter-final places, lose to Fiji in their autumn series. Bizarre!

Trying to apply logic to results in rugby is often a foolish thing to do.

I’m sure that most countries would point to the length of this international season, which culminates in a World Cup, meaning that the relevance of what happened last autumn is insignificant.

Notwithstanding that, I would be surprised if the Irish did not have at least two of their clubs in the draw for the quarter-finals given their status on the world stage.

The really interesting thing will be to see whether any Scottish teams will join them there.

We shall find out next weekend.