Analysts: Russians on the frontline may have lost the will to fight
Experts on war as Putin warns of an escalation in Ukraine
Russian frontline forces may not have “the reserves or morale” to withstand another concerted assault in eastern parts of Ukraine, according to defence experts.
British defence intelligence analysts believe Moscow has established a defensive line between the Oskil River and the town of Svatove following a successful counter-offensive from the Ukrainians, forcing the Kremlin to concede swathes of territory.
The zone is viewed as important partly because it sits along the border of the Luhansk region, part of the Donbas, which Russia has sought to “liberate” as one of its key war aims.
Any substantial loss of territory here would “unambiguously undermine” Vladimir Putin’s strategy for the conflict, according to Ministry of Defence analysts, who said it is unclear whether Russia’s frontline forces have “sufficient reserves or adequate morale” to withstand another concerted Ukrainian assault in eastern parts of the country.
Another expert suggested a further collapse of Russia defences in Ukraine could be fatal for Putin’s regime. Ukrainian forces recaptured more than 965 square miles of territory from Russia in just three days in a lightning strike, which was described as the biggest counteroffensive attack since the Second World War.
Dozens of towns and villages in the north-east of Ukraine were liberated, including the strategically important Izyum, which Russia had used as a base for its forces. Russian forces being caught off-guard and leaving weapons and ammunition behind and the huge loss of territory have led to even Putin loyalists murmuring discontent.
Justin Bronk, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said: “A second collapse this side of winter would be potentially terminal for the regime in Moscow.”
Ukraine has retaken more than 2,300 square miles this month, and Bronk said the success of the counter-attack would bolster Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s appeal for more funding and equipment.
Bronk said: “The counter-offensive essentially ends any Russian hopes of achieving President Putin’s aim in April of ‘liberating’ all of Donbas. The capture of the equipment is also significant, particularly stockpiles of ammunition, which
Ukrainian forces were running really quite low on.
“Politically, it is hugely significant as well because it makes the argument for continuing to support Ukraine, not only with weapons deliveries but also crucially the economic aid that it is going to rely on very heavily to keep going over the winter next year. It’s now much easier to make that argument in the West, especially in countries where continued large-scale support was somewhat politically contentious.”
They delivered their latest assessment as Putin vowed to press his attack on Ukraine despite that country’s latest counter-offensive.
Putin said the “liberation” of Ukraine’s entire eastern Donbas region remained Russia’s main military goal and that he sees no need to revise it. “We aren’t in a rush,” the Russian leader said. Meanwhile, bodies have been unearthed at a mass burial site near the city of Izium, in the Kharkiv region, which was recently recaptured from Moscow.
“Tortured, shot, killed by shelling,” Zelensky said. “Entire families are buried there.”