Democracy in peril as US
In the run-up to America’s midterm elections, the husband of the most powerful Democrat in Congress was attacked by a conspiracy theorist with a hammer and the president warned of chaos if the result was contested.
It sounds like something expected from a less-established democracy but is a sign of how fraught politics has become in the land of the free.
Both episodes show how high the stakes are in the elections, which are held midway through a President’s term and see dozens of Senate, House, gubernatorial and statewide seats up for grabs. They are seen as a referendum on the party and President in power and are rarely good news for either. This year the midterms will determine if Democrats keep control of the House and Senate and, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, Republicans are favoured to take back the House, while the Senate will go to the wire.
Analysts told The Sunday Post that, to an extent, the elections themselves are on the ballot due to the wide number of Trump-supporting candidates who claim Joe Biden did not win the 2020 presidential election.
Trump refused to concede defeat and has repeatedly and baselessly claimed the election was stolen. He is said to be ready to announce his third run for the White House if the Republicans take control of the Congress on Tuesday.
His supporters include Kari Lake, a former TV anchor and Republican running for governor in Arizona, who recently said she would accept the result if she won but refused to confirm she would also do so if she lost.
Jennifer McCoy, a professor of political science at Georgia State University, said: “This year democracy itself is an issue. People see a threat to democracy – both sides feel that – and the idea that this should be a vote about saving democracy.”
A poll last week by NBC News found 80% of both Democrats and Republicans believe the political opposition poses a threat to the US.
McCoy said that, if election deniers did win, the most worrisome outcome would be them ignoring the will of the people in the 2024 presidential election, creating a constitutional crisis. She said: “That’s why democracy is on the line.”
In a prime-time speech this week, Biden singled out candidates like Lake who “will not commit to accepting the results of the elections they are running in”. Standing at Washington’s Union Station, steps from where a Trump-inspired mob stormed the US Capitol in January, Biden said: “This is the path to chaos in America. It’s unprecedented. It’s unlawful. And it’s un-American.”
Ratcheting up tensions was the case of David DePape, who was arrested
for breaking into the house of Nancy Pelosi, the House Speaker, and allegedly beating her husband Paul with a hammer. According to the criminal complaint, DePape entered the home with zip ties and rope with the intention of interrogating Pelosi, but only her husband was home.
DePape asked Pelosi: “Where’s
Nancy?” echoing the chant of rioters rampaging through the Capitol building.
According to Nathan Gonzales, publisher of Inside Elections, which provides nonpartisan analysis of votes, the aftermath of the poll this year could be tumultuous. The only question in the House race is how big Republicans will win by, Gonzales said. Democrats still have a chance to hold onto the Senate, mostly due to weak Republican candidates.
He said the economy and record inflation were the biggest factors affecting voters – a recent poll found 71% of people thought the country was headed in the wrong direction. The ruling by the Supreme Court in June to overturn the right to an abortion helped to animate Democratic voters but now Republicans are energised. Gonzalez said: “The Democrats’ momentum has stalled and Republicans are closing fast.”
The Senate will be decided in tight races such as Georgia. The incumbent, pastor Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, is up against former American football star Herschel Walker, who has been dogged by claims he paid multiple women for abortions and did not financially support his son, allegations that jarred with his portrayal as a family man.
One of the biggest upsets could be in New York where Rep Lee Zeldin is within striking distance of the Democrat governor Kathy Hochul. A victory for Zeldin would be an incredible feat in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans two to one, and a deeply worrying sign for the party on a national level.
Another factor at play is Biden’s unpopularity with his ratings hovering around 40%, lower than his four most recent predecessors at this stage in their presidency, and they all got hammered in the midterms.
Gonzalez said Biden had become “a drag on Democratic candidates across the country”.
Taking power after Trump, Biden branded himself as a stabilising force for the country but the bungled exit from Afghanistan was a turning point. Gonzalez said: “Just like with George W Bush and Hurricane Katrina, that’s when he lost the benefit of the doubt .”
Then there is Biden’s increasingly erratic behaviour. Campaigning for Democratic candidates in Florida last week, a mumbling Biden left audiences baffled. He incorrectly told black students he had been educated at a historically black college in Delaware. He then told another group he had met the makers of insulin – something that seems unlikely.
He attributed inflation to the “war in Iraq” and then, correcting himself, mentioned Ukraine, but then muddied the waters further by saying he had thought of Iraq because “that’s where my son died”. Biden’s son Beau served in Iraq but later died of brain cancer in the US.
Biden has said he wants to run again for president in 2024 but Democrats believe that is now unlikely although there is no other obvious candidate with Vice-President Kamala Harris so far failing to convince voters.
Meanwhile, if Republicans take back the House and the Senate, they will relentlessly investigate Biden and his family through their control of Congressional committees.
That will no doubt include Biden’s son Hunter, who has embarked on questionable foreign business dealings. Republicans can block Biden’s cabinet nominations, appoint dozens of right-leaning federal judges and refuse to pass the national budget and spark a government shutdown.
In short, it will deadlock the final years of the Biden administration as focus moves to the next president.
But there are risks for the Republicans: going into the 2024 presidential election voters may do what they are likely to do to the Democrats – and punish them for being the party in power.