Professor: FM in a corner over indy ref ruling

Nicola Sturgeon’s back-up plan to use an election as a de facto vote on independence has boxed her into a corner, according to constitutional expert James Mitchell.

On Wednesday, the UK’s highest court will deliver its judgment on whether the Scottish Parliament can legislate for a second referendum. A panel of five judges at the Supreme Court heard arguments from the Scottish and UK Governments in London last month.

Legal sources suggest the speed of the judgment means the ruling is likely to go against the Scottish Government.

Sturgeon has named October 19 next year as her preferred date for a poll but said she will treat the next General Election as a “de facto” referendum if the court rules that Holyrood cannot unilaterally call a referendum.

However, Mitchell, professor of public policy at Edinburgh University, said: “The first minister was so dismissive of anyone who dared to suggest a de facto referendum made little sense that it might be awkward for her to reverse her decision. But there are a lot of people in the SNP who think it is a mistake.

“The SNP does not seem ready to rush into a referendum and has clearly still got some big questions to address on the economy, pensions, borders and so on.”

Mitchell – who gave the inaugural State of Scottish Democracy lecture, hosted by the Electoral Reform Society last week – said: “If the SNP fights the next election solely on independence and fails to get 50% of the vote, what next? Does that put the issue back for a generation or are they going to fight on that issue at the next election after that?

“We may be at a point where people begin to tire of this and, in the context of the costof-living crisis, say we need to focus on public services, the economy, on the here and now.”

A Survation opinion last month suggested if an election were held tomorrow, 44% of Scots would vote for the SNP. However, only 35% wanted a referendum next year.

The Scottish Government said: “There is a substantial majority in the Scottish Parliament in favour of an independence referendum and therefore a clear democratic mandate.

“The Lord Advocate’s reference of this question to the Supreme Court was intended to achieve legal clarity on this point.”

The UK Government said: “Our clear view remains a Bill legislating for a referendum on independence would be outside the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament.”