This ruling will signal a new phase in indy debate. Buckle up
On the Sunday immediately preceding a referendum, or an election, or even a major political event like last week’s Autumn Statement by the Chancellor, we often feel the gravity of what is about to come.
Today, we are three days away from an event which could, in the final analysis, mark the most important moment in the Scottish independence debate since 2014. On Wednesday, the Supreme Court will decide whether the Scottish Independence Referendum Bill is within the competence of Holyrood.
In other words, it will decide whether the proposed second independence referendum, scheduled for October 19 next year, is legal. The judgment will push the start button on one of three potential scenarios, each of which could mark the beginning of the end of our interminable debate on whether or not Scotland should be an independent country.
The first is the one which most experts, and many non-experts, are deeming highly unlikely – that the Supreme Court will rule the referendum to be legal. The Scottish Government will, of course, have to press ahead with the vote.
The Labour party under Keir Starmer will, in my view, find it impossible to question the legitimacy of a vote which has been deemed legal by the Supreme Court, and will therefore also participate. The Conservatives, itching to urge a unionist boycott of the vote, will have an existential decision to make about whether it sides with the court or with the ultra-unionists whose votes it needs to remain any kind of force in Scottish politics.
However, if, as seems likely, the court says that calling a referendum is not within the competence of the Scottish Parliament, the response from the unionist parties is obvious. It is the response from the Scottish National Party, in particular, which is worthy of examination, and that response will lead to either the second or third of the possible scenarios.
The second scenario is the one which First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has already outlined as her back-up plan – to fight the next General Election as a proxy referendum. In other words, if 50% of the voters vote for a party advocating independence, it should be taken as a Yes vote (in reality, the strategy is that such an outcome will make the granting of a “legal” referendum by Westminster a fait accompli).
That strategy seems logical in the context of recent elections. With a weak Labour party, the SNP has been able to push independence as an alternative to the Tories.
However, the Labour party is no longer weak; it is strong, and very probably going to win the next election. Furthermore, the next election is highly likely to be focused on the cost of living crisis and the general economic outlook, making the likelihood of the SNP being able to fight a single-issue campaign rather small.
And, there, we reach the third possible scenario; that Sturgeon may have to decide discretion is the better part of valour. In other words, with polling indicating too little movement in pro-independence polling, might Sturgeon wait until 2026, on “home turf” at the next Holyrood election, to fight a proxy referendum at the ballot box?
Wednesday is the start of a new phase in the independence debate. Buckle up.