Spain’s prime minister pitted against its most-wanted man
Election result to cause turmoil no matter which party prevails
In the tiny hamlet of Bruguera, in the rugged hills of the Pyrenees, it is a struggle to find anyone who speaks Castilian Spanish as their first language.
Technically we are still in Spain, but this feels like a different country. Catalan is the lingua franca here.
Any mention of Madrid is usually met with scorn. Three separatist parties dominate local politics and the estelada, the whitestarred Catalan independence flag, flies proudly from some homes.
“Why should we vote for any party from Madrid? What do they do for us? They speak a foreign language,” said Josep Vialta, a builder who lives in Bruguera.
In rural parts of this wealthy corner of Spain, the promise of deliverance from Madrid has been the dream for the past decade.
However, all this could be about to change as polls predict that the Socialists, who oppose independence, might oust an alliance of separatist parties from power.
Voters go to the polls today in Catalonia in a regional election whose result could send shockwaves throughout Spain.
The cast of characters make this much more than a dowdy provincial political contest.
In one corner is Carles Puigdemont. Spain’s most wanted fugitive was Catalan president until he fled Spain in 2017, hidden in the boot of a car, after a failed independence bid which caused Spain’s biggest political crisis in decades.
A hero to hardline separatists, he is a hate figure to many Spaniards. Even some separatists privately detest Puigdemont for the way he fled to live in Belgium while others stayed to face the music, with many ending up in jail.
Ranged against him is Pedro Sánchez, the Spanish Prime Minister, whose Socialist Party is the favourite to win the election.
His policies of trying to end the territorial crisis by making concessions to Catalonia have won him many friends within the region.
However, if Sánchez’s party emerges victorious, it may sour relations between his left-wing coalition government and Puigdemont’s party, Junts per Catalunya (Together for Catalonia). After an inconclusive general election last year, Sánchez only retains power in Madrid because he struck a deal to pass a highly controversial amnesty for hundreds of Catalan separatists who faced charges over 2017 in return for the votes of seven MPs from Puigdemont’s party.
The amnesty bill, which is expected to become law by the summer, provoked large demonstrations. Right-wingers battered an effigy of Sánchez outside the Socialist party headquarters in Madrid.
Puigdemont, 61, spent six years in Waterloo, scene of the defeat of Napoleon by the Duke of Wellington and the Prussian army, but recently moved to Vallespir in France.
The south-west town i s only 8km from the Spanish border and is in a region regarded by separatists as North Catalonia as the Catalan language is widely spoken.
Should former journalist Puigdemont win the election, he plans to return to Spain despite facing the prospect of arrest on charges of disobedience and misuse of public funds, which he denies. If the amnesty law is not in force when he steps foot on Spanish soil, police could put handcuffs on the Catalan leader, providing an inflammatory image for supporters.
The election itself will prove the first test of the amnesty law.
Inside Catalonia, it seems to have won over many of the six million voters who, according to recent polls, have tired of independence.
Outside the region, it has lost Sánchez supporters even within his own party. A poll carried out in March for the Catalan government’s Centre for Opinion Studies found 51% opposed independence while 42% supported splitting from Spain.
This contrasts with a survey in 2017, at the height of the independence bid, when 49% of Catalans supported forming Europe’s newest state while 43% opposed this.
An outright winner is unlikely to emerge today as the Socialists may win the largest share of the vote but this may not be enough for an absolute majority.
A recent survey for the respected Centre for Sociological Studies found the Socialists would win 29% of votes but Together for Catalonia and another moderate separatist party, Catalan Republican Left (ERC) both won about 18%-21% share of support.
Puigdemont has refused to form a coalition with the Socialists but if ERC sides with Sanchez, this may alienate Together for Catalonia. A repeat election is a possibility.
Lluis Orriols, a political expert at the University Carlos III in Madrid, said if the Socialists win it could change the precarious national political picture.
“The Catalan elections were a tough blow for the Socialists because they could break a fragile alliance between the Socialists and the ERC. They support each other on a national and regional level,” he told The Sunday Post.
“The best result would be to maintain this situation. But another possible outcome could be Puigdemont wins the largest vote among independence parties, or the Socialists win a majority.
Either of these could generate a high degree of instability on a national level.”