protest has passed”. That message has failed to get through to the sort of people who continue to set off home-made bombs.
But who are they and what do they want?
“There’s no doubt the principal line of inquiry will be one of the republican groups — probably either the Real IRA or Oglaigh na heireann [Soldiers of Ireland],” said Ch Supt Martin. “I would be surprised if it wasn’t one of those.”
MI5 says there has been “an ongoing rise in the activity and ambitions” of dissident Republican groups in recent years and they have about 700 members. It says the level of threat in Northern Ireland is “severe” — meaning a terrorist attack is highly likely. That’s more serious than the threat from al-qaeda and other terrorist groups in Britain as a whole, which is rated “substantial”.
Jonathan Evans, Director General of the Security Service, says the difference between the various groups is “based on marginal distinctions and personal rivalries”.
Their weapons of choice are guns and explosive devices, although these tend to be crude because of a lack of expertise and supplies.
They are beyond the control of the old-style IRA and dismissive of the calls of Sinn Fein to join the democratic process. To them, Mr Mcguinness is a traitor. They have no obvious political aims and no support from any major party.
Martina Anderson, who represents the Foyle area for Sinn Fein, said after the attacks: “Once more, we have seen the mindless actions of organisations that command minuscule support disrupting citizens’ lives. There is no rational argument for armed actions in the political climate that now exists.”
Some are old-timers hanging on to an exhausted ideology, but many senior figures have been arrested and sent to prison in recent years. Their place has been taken by younger recruits, many of whom have no memory of life during The Troubles. They believe the romantic stories of an armed struggle for a free Ireland, and their disaffection is fuelled by unemployment and economic hard times.
Londonderry is the second largest city in Northern Ireland but in terms of glamour it lags far behind Belfast, which has a flourishing café and arts culture, a multicultural student population, thriving film studios, and a host of impressive new buildings.
In Belfast, they have repackaged sectarianism as authentic local culture for the tourists: the 12th of July Protestant marches, for example, have been rebranded as Orangefest and attract crowds from overseas.
By contrast, any tourists who turned up for the Apprentice Boys march in Londonderry in August will have had to be careful not to get caught up in a riot. A woman and daughter were dragged from their car, which was hijacked and set alight.
Away from the tourists and their money, across Northern Ireland there continues to be a low but frustrating level of trouble including punishment beatings and shootings. Buses get hijacked. Small bombs are let off. Last year, the centre of Londonderry was evacuated several times.
The City of Culture offices were targeted twice in 2011 by what the police chief called “improvised, clandestinely made devices made in garages or barns by people
In Belfast, they have repackaged sectarianism for the tourists
with limited engineering experience”.
After the latest attacks, Ch Supt Martin said: “I can’t understand their logic or what they hope they can contribute. They appear to be cavalier in terms of the risk they are prepared to take.
“They will have scurried off and got themselves safe before making their phone call. They’ll have left the bombs inside bags, and you could have had inquisitive young people, people walking their dogs or stopping for a chat, cut to pieces, with bombs going off prematurely.”
Asked about plans to increase security for the City of Culture, he said: “I don’t think it would be in any of our interests if we throw a ring of steel around this city for 2013. I don’t think there’s anything cultural about that.”
This time, the bombers managed to make a small hole and a scorch mark on the wall of a dental surgery near the council offices, and blow in the doors of the tourist centre. There was nobody in at the time, said Odhran Dunne, the visitor services manager. “We’ve set up a temporary desk at the Tower Museum, the lads here are putting new doors on and we’ll be open again on Monday morning. It has only caused minor disruption. This is the off season anyway, so it’s much quieter. What they did is more annoying than anything.”
The day after the Londonderry bombs, Brian Shivers, 46, from Magherafelt in County Londonderry, was sent to prison for life for the killing of Sappers Patrick Azimkar and Mark Quinsey and the attempted murder of six others in March 2009. The soldiers were shot as they collected pizzas outside the entrance of the army base in Massareene. They were the first members of the British security forces in Northern Ireland to die since 1998, the year the Good Friday peace agreement was signed.
Colin Duffy, 43, from Lurgan in County Armagh, a dissident Republican, was acquitted and freed. Police said the hunt for the rest of the killers would go on.
Meanwhile, the best hope of peace continues to be prosperity. Hundreds of millions of pounds have been poured into Northern Ireland from Europe and the US since 1998, and the visitors have begun to follow. Tourism was up across the whole of Northern Ireland by 11 per cent in the first half of last yearrepublican, bringing an estimated £165 million into the province.
Londonderry is desperate to share in the growth experienced by Belfast, and has every chance of doing so over the next year or two, provided planned events are not disrupted.
“Derry has so much to look forward to in the next couple of years, yet some people seem set on causing mayhem and as much disruption as possible,” said Mr Mcguinness. “Theirs is an agenda of the past; ours is of the future.” After he spoke at the party in the palace on Wednesday night, Van Morrison had got up and sang: “From the dark and lonely street to the bright side of the road.”
There are still some who would drag Northern Ireland back into the dark. But the message from politicians and people on all sides is that there are far more who are enjoying the sunshine, and are determined to stay there.