exploration is still in its early stages, it is thought that they could contain 8.3 billion barrels, almost two-thirds of what remains in the North Sea. And the more the oil starts to flow, the angrier Buenos Aires is likely to get.
True, nobody sees war as a realistic prospect again – not least because, today, the archipelago is one of the most heavily defended pieces of turf in the world. As well as four Eurofighter Typhoons, three Royal Navy ships and 150 troops, there is a vast runway ready to receive any amount of back-up forces in an emergency – plans that Mr Cameron has now made a point of asking to be updated. The islanders themselves also have a 100-strong volunteer force, equipped with quadbikes and Land Rovers fitted with heavy machine guns.
But, while Mrs Kirchner insists that Argentina will pursue only peaceful means to push its claim, she is wielding the diplomatic cudgels on every front. Before Christmas, she persuaded neighbouring Chile, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay – all part of the Mercosur trading bloc – to ban Falkland-flagged vessels from their ports. (The fact that Paraguay is landlocked did not preventing it signing the order.) It is thought she may now try to sever the islands’ only commercial air link, a weekly flight from Chile that crosses the tip of southern Argentina.
Buenos Aires has also crowed over the position of the US government, which has shifted from explicit support for the British position to one of studied neutrality. In a stance that has irked Downing Street, Washington has called on both sides to hold a dialogue, saying it takes no position on sovereignty.
Mrs Kirchner is expected to take up the cause again when she returns to work this week after surgery for what turned out to be a falsely diagnosed thyroid cancer.
In practical terms, however, her threats so far pose limited menace. Oil, if discovered, can simply be shipped out via tanker across the Atlantic. The plane from Chile, meanwhile, could easily fly around the Argentinian airspace it traverses, and besides, the islands can still get much of their supplies from container ships and the 20-hour RAF flight that comes in from Brize Norton thrice fortnightly.
All the same, a blockade would make life awkward for the islanders, according to Stuart Wallace, the director of Fortuna, Port Stanley’s biggest fishing company. “We used to put ships regularly into Montevideo in Uruguay, and we have a long-standing relationship there,” he said. “We’ll have to review whether we continue that.”
Just as troubling is Protest (clockwise from above): a Union flag is burned in Buenos Aires on Friday; islander Patrick Watts; British troops during the conflict; President Cristina Kirchner Argentina’s ongoing “squid wars” offensive. The Falklands’ much soughtafter Illex squid begin life off the River Plate, on the Argentina-uruguay border, and swim southwards into Falkland waters as they grow.
But, this year, Argentina opened the squid-catching season early, ignoring conservation issues, in a deliberate attempt to sabotage the Falklands’ market. “It’s too early to say if it’s had an impact, but it’s certainly another area of concern,” said Mr Wallace. “It’s a reckless move that could threaten stocks.”
In all likelihood, this may be the level at which Mrs Kirchner’s hostilities continue – in petty skirmishing over molluscs, rather than soldiers battling it out on Goose Green. Yet, while the conflict may remain as frozen as the icebergs further south of the islands, there is no shortage of Argentinians determined that the British resolve will eventually melt.
“This is a deep part of our psyche and our identity,” said Abel Rausch, who served as a 19-year-old Argentine conscript during the fighting, and who now frequents a veterans’ club in Lujan, a gaucho town on the edge of Argentina’s pampas-ranching heartland. He, too, remains a strong critic of General Galtieri’s attempt to take the islands by force – but, on the question of who should own the islands, he is just as sure of his case as Mr Watts is. “The Malvinas always have been and always will be Argentine territory.”