IF PROOF were needed that a week is a long time in politics, it has been provided by Newt Gingrich’s bid for the Republican nomination.
Ten days ago he was limping out of New Hampshire after a fourth-place finish and the talk was of when, not if, he would drop out of the race.
Party power-brokers, fearful that his arrogance and divisiveness would, if he were the nominee, guarantee a loss to Presi- dent Barack Obama in November were privately gleeful at his apparent demise. His most high-profile endorsement came from Todd Palin, husband of Sarah. Remember her?
But a funny thing happened on the way to the debating hall. Gingrich delivered two turbo-charged performances that propelled him to the front of the pack.
The final polls before last night’s primary in South Caro- lina showed him ahead of the frontrunner Mitt Romney by an average of five percentage points, having trailed by an average of eight just seven days ago. A poll by the American Research Group showed Gingrich with a 14 point lead.
Fighting for every last vote yesterday morning, the leading candidates zipped around television studios, polling stations and diners and even visited Tommy’s Country Ham House in Greenville within 15 minutes of each other.
Romney tried to play down expectations, saying Gingrich had home advantage as a former congressman from neighbouring Georgia. “I knew that we’d have a long, long road ahead of us, and frankly to be in a neck-and-neck race at this last moment is … is kind of exciting,” he said, sounding less than confident.
Romney knows that, as Gingrich said after his strident debate performance on Thursday, “if we win, it’s a whole new ball game”.
Even a second-placed finish would put the former House Speaker in a position to emerge as the conservative alternative to the moderate Romney and narrow the contest to a two-horse race. Until the Gingrich resurgence, an early coronation of the former Massachusetts governor had seemed inevitable.
In a week packed with drama Rick Perry, the Texas governor, dropped out on Thursday and immediately endorsed Gingrich, a kindred spirit. Jon Huntsman, the former Utah governor, fell by the wayside the day before.
Gingrich’s greatest rival for the conservative mantle is Rick Santorum, a former Pennsylvania senator who lacks the former House Speaker’s clout and penchant for combat and
If Newt becomes president, he’ll make chaos look organised. That’s who he is
was trailing in the polls.
“Newt’s a fighter. You knock him down and he comes back,” said Bob Livingston, a former Louisiana congressman and supporter. “He’s Rocky Balboa, he’s the Eveready bunny. When he got that first question in the debate, a lot of people would have folded. He hit back.”
The question he referred to was put to Gingrich by CNN’S moderator at the start of the debate. Asked for a comment on a claim by his second wife Marianne that in 1999 he asked for an open marriage because he was in the midst of an affair with his congressional aide, Gingrich didn’t flinch.
He launched a counterattack on the “elite media” for ignoring the “real issues”, and for dealing in “trash” and “protecting Barack Obama”. The all-republican crowd rose in exaltation. It was red meat to a constituency that feels perennially belittled by the mainstream media.
Gingrich’s personal history is, however, undoubtedly an issue for some Republicans. He has been married three times — Callista Bisek, his mistress in the 1990s, became his third wife. He allegedly discussed divorce with his first wife Jackie while she was in hospital being treated for cancer. Marianne said he pushed for his second divorce months after she was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis.
A friend who was appalled by his treatment of Jackie has said Gingrich told him: “You know and I know that she’s not young enough or pretty enough to be the wife of a president.”
Jackie was 10 years older than him and had given him two daughters, who are working for their father’s campaign and dismiss the open marriage claims.
On Friday, women among his supporters in South Carolina dismissed the marital scandal. “The private stuff doesn’t matter as much as what he can do for the country,” said Gloria Davis, 64.
But veterans of Republican races were not so sure. “I expect a lot of women are asking their husbands today, ‘ Are you really going to vote for that man?’ His answer sounded good at the time, but an hour later you are wondering if it was really so good,” said Alex Castellanos, a Republican consultant in Washington.
In the week’s earlier debate, Gingrich inspired another standing ovation with a denouncement of welfare slackers. He has relentlessly attacked Romney for pocketing millions from slashing jobs as head of Bain Capital.
But his abrasiveness still rubs some voters the wrong way, as does his capacity for self-aggrandisement. Now 68, he says that as a young congressman he was a player in Ronald Reagan’s conservative revolution. But as Romney pointed out in the debate, he merits just one mention in the former president’s diaries.
Gingrich cites his leadership of Congress, but his obstinacy led to a shutdown of government, while his talent for antagonism led to a coup by fellow Republicans in 1998.
He was fined for ethics violations and has been out of office for 13 years. Senator Jim Talent of Missouri, who served in the House with Gingrich but now supports Romney, calls him “unreliable” and “outrageous”.
After his senior staff walked out in the summer, Gingrich’s bid is essentially a one-man show, which can lead to poor planning. On Friday morning he cancelled a speech at a Republican conference in Charleston because of poor attendance. He then visited the Medical University of South Carolina’s Children’s Hospital with Callista, who read from her children’s book Sweet Land of Liberty. The hospital could only muster four children to listen.
The roadshow tomorrow moves to Florida, where millions more dollars will be needed for television advertising before voting on Jan 31. After that come eight contests in February and 10 states at once on Supertuesday, March 6.
Gingrich has the bones of a campaign in the Sunshine State, but will once again be living largely on his wits and his acerbic turn of phrase.
One viral moment on the web could compensate in part for a lack of boots on the ground.
“Organisation is less important, that’s true, until you actually have to do the job in the White House,” said Castellanos.
“If Newt becomes president it would be like his campaign. It would make chaos look organised. That’s who he is.”