The dirty tricks that could rob Suu Kyi of power once more
Burmese fear Nobel laureate’s great comeback will be thwarted amid violations of electoral law
THE Lady on the Lake was in assertive mood as she emerged from the house that was her prison for 15 years to deliver her final message ahead of Burma’s historic elections.
With a signature spray of flowers in her hair, Aung San Suu Kyi took the stage in front of her party banner, a yellow peacock and white star on a red backdrop, in a tent in the gardens of her colonial-era villa next to Inya Lake.
For more than an hour, she answered questions about an election that represents the next chapter in a life inextricably enmeshed with the turbulent history of her homeland.
Under normal circumstances, the Nobel laureate would emerge from today’s vote as the new leader – a status that was violently snatched from her father when he was assassinated just months before independence in 1948.
But there are no normal circumstances in a country where the constitution guarantees a bloc of seats to the military, Ms Suu Kyi is barred from the presidency and an alliance of radical monks and nationalists have launched a last-ditch campaign to thwart her.
The last time her National League for Democracy contested national elections in the country also known as Myanmar, Ms Suu Kyi was detained in these same grounds for the first of what would become 15 years of house arrest.
The NLD still won that 1990 vote by a landslide, but the ruling junta simply refused to accept the result and threw hundreds of the NLD’s supporters and newly-elected MPs in jail. Many died from torture and illness.
A quarter of a century later, Ms Suu Kyi and her party appear on the brink of a political comeback as the favourites to defeat the military-backed ruling party of former generals.
There are no opinion polls, but she has drawn huge and fervent crowds as she has campaigned and there is little doubt about the popularity of the NLD.
But in the tea-houses and restaurants, there is a growing sense of foreboding among NLD supporters.
They fear another victory could be blocked by a mixture of dirty tricks, voter list irregularities, bribes, intimidation, as well as a last-ditch intervention by radical Buddhist monks drawing on anti-Muslim nationalism.
“I fear that they will do everything to swing the vote,” said Kyaw Mya, 78, a father of six and former motorbike mechanic, referring by “they” to a combination of the military, ruling party and Buddhist nationalists.
“If the NLD loses, its supporters will cry foul and rise up,” he said. “But if the NLD wins, the military will not want Mother Suu to run the government. There will be trouble. I’m so worried that I cannot sleep at night.”
Thousands of election observers are being deployed, but not every polling station can be monitored and in rural areas, many voters worry about the security of their ballot. Ms Suu Kyi sounded her own concerns, noting violations of electoral law by her opponents. She expressed fear about the “extent to which the authorities are prepared to go to win the election”.
These are the first elections since the generals partially stepped back from
Supporters of Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy, hold aloft a sea of red flags as they attend a campaign speech by the Nobel laureate in Yangon power to end five decades of military dictatorship. Since 2011, Burma has been ruled by Thein Sein, a former general, and other ex-senior officers.
But this is far from the full transition to democracy that was initially hailed by some Western leaders.
Under the 2008 constitution, the commander-in-chief of the armed forces will appoint the ministers of the interior, defence and border affairs. He will also name military officers to occupy 25 per cent of seats in the new parliament. That bloc will be able to veto any change to the very constitu- tion that enshrines military influence. It means the NLD must win two thirds of the seats to obtain a large enough majority to force through change. That will be a challenge with many ethnic parties likely to do well in their areas, so weeks of post-election horse-trading could be on the cards.
Ms Suu Kyi’s foes have been trying to undermine her chances with a series of ruses. Voters in several constituencies said they had been offered inducements such as money, food parcels or free transport to attend rallies. The voter lists are strewn with inaccuracies.
The military forces – amounting to a million voters when families are included – have been told by their officers to support a candidate who will protect “race and religion” and is free of “foreign influences”. Similar messages have been relayed to the bloated civil service ranks. It is is understood as an instruction not to vote for Ms Suu Kyi. Her party opposed four anti-Muslim “race and religion” laws and her late husband was an Oxford academic and their two adult sons are British.
Her British ties mean Ms Suu Kyi cannot be nominated for president, as the constitution bars anyone whose close relatives owe allegiance to a foreign power from holding the top job. But Ms Suu Kyi has said she would run the country from an unidentified position “above the president”.
If the NLD wins, it will be a triumph driven by her dogged refusal to be broken by her long years of detention. Whether the woman known as “mother” to many Burmese emerges as the country’s next leader will be determined by today’s vote and the long weeks of negotiations that are expected to follow.