Cameron may yet surprise the Eurosceptics

For many Eurosceptics, the publication of David Cameron’s first official description of his objectives in renegotiating Britain’s EU membership deal will simply confirm what they already knew: the Prime Minister is aiming too low, not even trying to win back substantial powers to change the relationship radically.

The Out camp’s assessment of why Mr Cameron is acting thus is divided. Some think the PM is trying to play clever politics, playing down expectations so he can confect a row with other EU leaders, then produce a rabbit from his hat nearer the referendum. Others, Cabinet ministers among them, think he doesn’t believe he can or should do better, that he can win the vote to stay in without major concessions from Brussels.

On one thing the sceptics are agreed though; right now, things are going their way. Certainly, the Out side of the battle feels more confident and upbeat, and Mr Cameron’s letter looks like doing little to dispel the chatter among European diplomats that he’s finally realised how hard it will be to win major changes.

Yet, for all that, we should be wary of calling a race that still has months or even years to run. Especially since, despite sending ever-clearer signals of his intention to campaign for Remain, Mr Cameron is not yet really running.

Critics rightly say that Mr Cameron can be too casual and too blithely optimistic, forgoing strategy for a belief in his own ability to improvise and the hope that something will turn up. But in his case, something generally does turn up. Don’t call the outcome of the EU contest until the last vote has been counted.