Party darling Rubio still can’t touch Trump
Republican senator who loves God and guns fails to make mark despite being perfect ‘unity’ candidate
HE IS the favoured candidate of the Republican Party establishment, but with the opening contest of the 2016 presidential primary campaign now just two weeks away, Marco Rubio is still struggling to make an impact.
The fresh-faced 44-year-old senator with Cuban-Hispanic roots is thought by many analysts to have the best chance of beating the Democrats’ Hillary Clinton this year – but first he must get past Donald Trump, the billionaire businessman who is still hogging the headlines and leading in the polls.
“Rubio’s challenge is winning in one of the first four states,” said Larry Sabato, election analyst and director of the Centre for Politics at the University of Virginia. “He is the favourite of the establishment, but his problem is that he has to win.” Early signs are not good.
In Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada, Mr Rubio is a distant third behind Mr Trump and Ted Cruz, the Texas senator who is the darling of the Tea Party movement. In New Hampshire he comes in second, but not a close one.
In all these key states, polls show, he has less than half the support enjoyed by Mr Trump. Speaking in the town of Derry, New Hampshire this week, Mr Rubio hit all the notes required of a Republican running for president, praising God and guns and charging Barack Obama with everything that is evil.
He rolled out his back story, a classic US tale of a poor immigrant who moved to the land of opportunity: “America owes me absolutely nothing; but I and my family owe America everything.” On paper, Mr Rubio should be the Republicans’ perfect “unity” candidate: an establishment figure and foreign policy hawk who also ran for senate in 2010 under the Tea Party banner.
His Cuban background should also help neuter the Democrats’ traditional advantage with Hispanic groups.
“Since early in the campaign, internal polling numbers showed he was doing well in the likeability and trust categories,” said Patrick Murray, who heads the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “But the likeability has only carried him so far.”
With the Iowa caucus just a fortnight away, Mr Rubio needs to step up his game, so that he can be in pole position if – as is still widely expected Trump’s support hits a ceiling.
However, there are signs that Mr Rubio’s core strategy, to appeal to younger voters, is not working, said Mr Murray.
But in this unusual presidential election, the outsider figure of Donald Trump has stolen the show so second place in early voting is a coveted spot from where rivals can pick up voters from contenders as they drop out – support unlikely to switch to Mr Trump.
Competition is fierce, with Mr Rubio chased by fellow Floridian Jeb Bush, New Jersey governor Chris Christie and John Kasich, governor of Ohio.
The winner in New Hampshire “is likely to become the establishment choice,” added Mr Murray.
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