Russia is the only victor as rebels are crushed
THE defeats being suffered by rebel forces across northern Syria and most recently around Aleppo are crushing.
If the rebels are besieged, starved and ultimately defeated in the country’s largest city it could even be the beginning of the end for them, at least as a force able to hold large areas of territory.
The consequences for the Middle East and even Europe would be enormous too: this is the part of Syria that has seen millions flee into Turkey, and then on to the boats to Greece and beyond. It is hard to see them returning soon.
But for whom is it a victory? Not, by all accounts, the Assad regime’s forces. Doctors operating in opposition-area hospitals say a large number of “regime” captives being brought in are Afghans, and even Iraqis — members of Shia militias press-ganged into service by Iran, whose generals are directing operations.
Tehran, then, is one winner: Syria is another unstable but strategically significant country into which, like Lebanon, it can insert proxy forces to represent its interests. But it has come at a high price: another Iranian general was killed last week, believed to be the fifth casualty of such rank. Many more Iranian foot soldiers have died, plus thousands of militiamen from Shia communities.
The country that has been most crucial for victory has been Russia. In the end, opposition activists and rebel commanders say, the hundreds of air strikes on rebel positions along the supply routes north of Aleppo were overwhelming. As in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin’s intervention has stopped a decisive geopolitical shift, another loyal tributary state falling out of Russia’s orbit into that of the West.
As in Ukraine, neither Mr Putin nor anyone else seems to have much idea of what happens next. It seems unlikely that even with Russian and Iranian support Bashar al-Assad can reestablish a peaceful rule over his country. But what it took diplomatically for Russia to achieve this breakthrough means that a peace deal looks impossible.
For weeks, John Kerry, US secretary of state, travelled around the region, persuading the opposition to come to Geneva to take part in a Russian-sponsored “peace process”. In doing so, he divided the rebels and forced the “moderates” to take on the local al-Qaeda affiliate, Jabhat Al-Nusra, which was specifically excluded from negotiations and would not want to take part anyway.
That created a decisive split in the ranks of Ahrar al-Sham, the most powerful Islamist militia in northern Syria, some of whose members sided with Jabhat Al-Nusra and some with the “peace party”.
The agreement of the rebels to come to Geneva was an apparent triumph for Mr Kerry, securing both talks and persuading rebels to take a stand against al-Qaeda.
It was in fact a perfect setup: the minute the opposition arrived, the Russian bombing of Aleppo started, and the “moderate” opposition, its western and Gulf backers, and Mr Kerry himself were humiliated.
For those determined to see an end to Mr Assad, the jihadists are now the best option. Those who wish a continuation of his rule have Russia and Iran.
For everyone else, there is flight, Turkey’s tent cities, and the ever-less welcoming arms of Europe’s beaches.