Crucial talks to repair great divide of Cyprus
Diplomats on Greek and Turkish sides gear up for final push to end Europe’s longest-running conflict
Talks to resolve the Cyprus conflict will enter a “critical phase” this week, as Turkish and Greek leaders engage in what diplomats are calling a “final push” to reach a deal to reunify the island. Heads of both communities, which have been locked in mutual enmity since the Turkish invasion of 1974, will meet on Tuesday.
TALKS to resolve Europe’s longestrunning frozen conflict will enter a “critical phase” this week, as the leaders of Turkish and Greek-controlled Cyprus engage in what diplomats are calling a “final push” to reach a historic deal to reunify the island. The leaders of both communities, which have been locked in mutual enmity since the island was divided north and south by the Turkish invasion of 1974, will start a fresh round of talks on Tuesday.
Diplomats hope the negotiations can finally unlock one of Europe’s most vexed political questions.
“There is a greater sense of urgency than I can ever remember,” an EU diplomatic source close to the talks told
The Sunday Telegraph. “There is a real sense that the time for a deal is now, and the window for a deal will start to close after the end of this year.”
Optimism that the two sides can reach an agreement spiked this summer after it emerged that talks in June and July had resolved many of the disputes over how to pay compensation for the billions of pounds worth of property left behind by both sides when the island was divided.
A total of 380,000 acres of land were abandoned by Greek Cypriots as the island split along ethnic lines in 1974, while on the other side, 110,000 acres that once belonged to the Turkish community is now in Greek hands.
At stake is billions of pounds’ worth of property tied up in ghost towns such as Varosha – the once-exclusive beach resort frequented by Richard Burton and Brigitte Bardot which was abandoned after 1974 – and Morphou, a once predominantly Greek town of 18,000 now inhabited by Turkish Cypriots.
With an agreement on the property question now reportedly close, this week the talks will move on to the other major area of contention – security, and the question of the withdrawal of some 35,000 Turkish troops still stationed in the northern part of the island.
The Greek side has long demanded that all Turkish forces must withdraw as part of any putative deal, which would create a federally administered EU member state, most likely with a revolving Turkish and Greek presidency.
Hopes that Turkey would not stand in the way of the deal by refusing to withdraw its forces were boosted last week by a press conference between Mustafa Akinci, the Turkish Cypriot leader, and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president of Turkey.
In a series of notably positive statements, Mr Erdogan said a deal would “contribute to the region’s security, stability and prosperity” and conspicuously did not rule out a Turkish withdrawal.
James Sawyer, Cyprus analyst with the Eurasia Group, a firm of analysts, said the failed coup attempt in Turkey had improved prospects for a deal since it weakened the Turkish military, which had previously objected to withdrawal, and strengthened Mr Erdogan’s interest in building constructive neighbourhood relations.
“Erdogan’s remarks suggest that reunification remains on track and that on the whole, Turkey has more interest in supporting reunification of the island,” he said.
Starting on Tuesday, Mr Akinci holds the first of seven meetings with his Greek-Cypriot counterpart, Nicos Anastasiades.
The final round is scheduled for Sept 14 at the time of the United Nations General Assembly.
Diplomats hope the assembly could provide a forum to give further impetus to the process.
If the talks stay on track, it is envisaged that the stage could be set early in 2017 for international-level talks in a neutral venue to hammer out a final agreement.
That will then need to be ratified by both Turkish and Greek electorates in a referendum.
If the two sides fail to agree a deal by early next year, diplomats fear that the political momentum will evaporate as the Greek side gears up for the 2018 presidential election.
Even if a deal is reached between the two leaderships, diplomats warn that it is not a foregone conclusion that both sides will ratify the deal, particularly if financial compensation to be offered on “lost” properties fails to meet the expectation of the electorate on either side of the divide.
The last time Cyprus voted on reunification – in 2004 – the Greek electorate overwhelmingly rejected the plan brokered by Kofi Annan, the UN secretary-general at the time, to the dismay of both Washington and Brussels, which hoped a deal could remove one of the main obstacles to Turkey’s EU accession.
More than a decade on, Turkish EU membership is now a very distant prospect, but a deal to resolve the Cyprus dispute would still be a major diplomatic coup for Europe at a time when, so soon after Brexit, its leaders are openly fighting the forces of disintegration.