Calls for snap election after analysis says May could boost her majority
THERESA May could boost her majority significantly if she called an early election, an analysis by Britain’s leading pollster has suggested, as influential Tories went public with calls for a snap vote.
The Prime Minister’s majority in the House of Commons would soar from 12 to 44 on current polling, according to analysis by Professor John Curtice, president of the British Polling Council.
The findings add pressure on Mrs May to reverse her early promise not to go to the public to seek her own mandate before the next general election in 2020.
There are fears her plan to end the ban on new grammar schools could be defeated by a handful of Tory backbenchers because of her slim majority. With Labour in disarray and Mrs May yet to get her own mandate from the British people, calls are now growing for her to bring the 2020 election forward. Jake Berry, the Tory MP for Rossendale and Darwen, told The Sunday Telegraph that an early election would help her pass policy changes more easily and avoid any backlash from Brexit negotiations. “An election in 2020 would effectively be an election on the Brexit deal, which could potentially open the door to Labour if the public are not happy,” he said. “If we had an election next year it would push the next vote over to 2022, where we will have had more of an opportunity to see if Brexit succeeded or failed,” Mr Berry said Ed Costello, chairman of the activist group Grassroots Conservatives, said calling an early election was a “no-brainer”, adding: “If you’re after an increased majority, it would be a great idea.” Figures inside the Government are more wary. One Cabinet minister said Mrs May’s reputation was now linked to not “playing politics”, and changing her stance on a snap vote would undermine that.
However a number of senior Tories said a vote after Brexit is secured was possible, with one saying: “You could then see something in 2019.”
Bringing about an early vote would be complicated, with two thirds of MPs needing to overturn the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, which dictates that elections can only be held every five year.
However Jeremy Corbyn has repeatedly said in public he would be willing to back the move, despite the party’s low standing in opinion polls.
Prof Curtice, the BBC’s polling expert, analysed the 23 polls published since Mrs May took office for The Sunday Telegraph to see what impact it would have on seats if there was an early election.
He found that the Tories were an average of 11 points ahead of Labour, which, if replicated in a general election, would probably see substantial gains for the party.
The Tories would be on 347 seats, 16 more than at the last election, while Labour would slump to 215, according to the analysis. There would be little change for the SNP and Liberal Democrats.
Despite the Tories’ overall majority rising from 12 to 44, Prof Curtice warned that an early election would be a risk, given polls are only an indication of public thinking.
Mrs May is “currently enjoying a honeymoon boost that history suggests could well disappear any time soon,” he said.