A new mood is sweeping Europe as terror and immigration start to dominate debate

IMMIGRATION dominates the minds of voters across the EU. When asked to rank the two most important issues facing the EU by European Commission pollsters, by some margin the most popular answers were immigration and terrorism, with the economic picture a distant third.

While the British put immigration at the top of the list so too did their counterparts in 20 other states. In this week’s Eurobarometer survey, the few cases where immigration was not top, terrorism was. The idea, often heard in Brussels, that the British are exceptional in their concern about immigration is no longer true.

Such findings should not be seen in isolation. Last month, a YouGov survey found the same thing; worries about immigration and terrorism dominated, revealing how the agenda in Europe today is now fundamentally different.

In his book After Europe, Ivan Krastev warned that the refugee crisis would be a game-changer for the EU.

It would be a watershed moment that would not only expose entrenched value divides between East and West but also leave majorities feeling intensely anxious about seemingly uncontrolled flows of newcomers and believing that the crisis is due to a conspiracy between cosmopolitan elites and tribal-minded immigrants.

He was not wrong. Europe’s new issue agenda is clearly now having profound political effects. Three trends are important. The first has been rising support for populists – from the League in Italy to the Austrian Freedom Party. Second, many centre-Right parties have shifted further Right on migration.

Third, the new mood is giving way to a new alliance of parties and states that are uniting to push back against what you might call “liberal” Europe.

None of these trends looks set to disappear. On the contrary, it may be that we are witnessing the start of a far more fundamental realignment.

Matthew Goodwin is professor of political science, senior visiting fellow at Chatham House and the author of “National Populism”, to be published by Penguin in October.