The rocks that could yet sink Theresa May’s ship
As Theresa May steels herself for an almost certain vote on her leadership this week, she knows that winning would be only the start of a grim, month-long battle for survival. Like a storm-battered ship, she must navigate the deadliest of channels, relying on fate to steer her from the rocks. Several obstacles lie ahead, which will come thick and fast in the ultimate test of her famed durability. Her backbenchers, the DUP, the EU and Parliament itself could bring her down, with odds of 5/4 that she will be gone by the end of the year.
Her worst case scenario would see her forced out as soon as Tuesday if, as expected, Tory Brexiteers summon enough support for a confidence vote.
To date, 25 Conservative MPs have confirmed they have written letters to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee, stating they have no confidence in Mrs May and demanding a vote on whether she should stay.
If another 23 write similar letters, Sir Graham is duty-bound to call the vote and Brexiteers are confident that threshold is within reach.
For months there have been claims that Sir Graham already had dozens of letters from anonymous MPs. Those claims now appear to have been overblown, but even if he had only received 20 letters before this week, a conservative estimate by any measure, the trigger point must be close.
Steve Baker, deputy chairman of the European Research Group of Tory Eurosceptics, overplayed his hand on Friday by claiming he already knew of 48 people who were writing letters.
Yet he was almost certainly right in saying more letters would come in once MPs had spoken to their local Conservative Associations. Others, who might have already left London on Thursday when the latest crisis gathered pace, might want their letters hand-delivered to Sir Graham tomorrow to ensure anonymity.
No one, the Prime Minister included, would be surprised if Sir Graham announced tomorrow that he was in possession of the 48 letters and a vote scheduled for “as soon as possible”, which could mean Tuesday.
Ever since talk of a confidence vote first emerged, Downing Street has sent out bullish “bring it on” messages to backbenchers, supremely confident that Mrs May will win and earn another year in office (there must be 12 months before another confidence vote).
Even amid the turmoil of the past week, it still seems unlikely that a majority would vote against her (159 would be 51 per cent), but they might topple her even without a majority.
Like John Major when he triggered a “put up or shut up” leadership election in 1995, Mrs May will have a figure in her head for how many MPs she needs for a genuine victory. Winning by one would still constitute defeat, as it would mean that 49 per cent wanted her to go.
Assuming a confidence vote is held and Mrs May wins convincingly, the biggest dangers will lie ahead.
Within the next 48 hours, five Cabinet Brexiteers – Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom, Liam Fox, Penny Mordaunt and Chris Grayling – meet to discuss how they might force the Prime Minister to seek last-minute changes to the deal, which has already been locked down with Brussels, according to No 10.
They believe changes can still be made before an EU summit next Sunday, principally to give the UK a unilateral means of exiting the Northern Ireland backstop. If Mrs May refuses (which seems certain) she could face another day of resignations, which could make her position untenable.
Dominic Raab, one of those who quit over the draft Brexit deal, said greater “political will” was needed going forward. He told The Sunday Times: “If we cannot close this deal on reasonable terms, we need to be very honest with the country that we will not be bribed, blackmailed or bullied and we will walk away. I think there is one thing missing and that is political will and resolve. I’m not sure that message has ever landed.”
Amber Rudd, who returned to the Cabinet to replace Esther McVey as Work and Pensions Secretary, said the unsettled Brexiteers should remember that the aim was to “govern”.
She told the Mail on Sunday: “They are trying to influence the further shaping of the deal, but from what I understand there’s no opportunity to do that. Remember what we’re trying to do, which is to govern.”
The all-consuming beast that is Brexit has distracted attention from another danger: the Budget. Sammy Wilson, the DUP’s Brexit spokesman, said yesterday that the party was still debating whether to vote against the Finance Bill, which would wipe out Mrs May’s Parliamentary majority and leave her powerless. No date has yet been set for the vote, but the last time a budget was voted down was in 1885. That government, led by William Gladstone, resigned the following day.
Even if the DUP decides to back the Budget, its confidence and supply agreement that promises Mrs May the DUP’s 10 votes, appears all but over.
The DUP said it would vote against the withdrawal deal in its current form, which would end the deal and leave Mrs May unable to govern.
Sunday’s EU summit presents another potential trap for Mrs May. While the Withdrawal Agreement is (as far as she is concerned) set in stone, the political declaration over the UK’s future relationship with the EU, which will form the basis of a future trade deal, is still in flux. There is room for further concessions to Brussels in the vaguely worded seven-page future framework document shown to the Cabinet last Tuesday, and several member states are pressing hard to secure additional commitments on fishing rights and regulations before the deal is signed off. Mrs May could find herself facing yet another revolt if she concedes to more giveaways.
Should she still be in Downing Street in a week’s time, she will face the “meaningful vote” on the Brexit deal early next month. The omens, so far, are terrible. When she presented her proposed Brexit deal to Parliament on Thursday, she faced a tidal wave of hostility from all sides. In a three-hour grilling, it took almost an hour before a single MP expressed any support.
If MPs are to be taken at face value, the chances of Mrs May winning that vote seem hopeless. While she can almost certainly count on the support of the 150 MPs who constitute the Government, and around 85 loyalists on the backbenches, she needs another 85 votes to secure a majority.
With roughly 60 Tory Brexiteers, plus the DUP’s 10 MPs, insisting they will vote against it, the Prime Minister can only win if she gets the backing of scores of Labour MPs.
Government whips believe that when MPs face the harsh choice between Mrs May’s deal or the probability of no deal at all (or even a general election, a Labour government and a second referendum), they will step back from the precipice and grudgingly fall into line.
That is Mrs May’s biggest gamble of all, and as her decision to hold a snap election last year showed, gambling has never been her game.
‘The last time a budget was voted down was in 1885. That government resigned the following day’