No snow for now, but prepare for a cold, cold snap

It may be the start of a new year, with self-improving resolutions the order of the day, but our weather is very definitely stuck in a rut. The high pressure that has been in place over much of the UK since Christmas is taking a leaf out of Theresa May’s book and defying all predictions of its imminent departure. So those headlines you read on New Year’s Day about heavy snow by this weekend have proved largely incorrect. Or perhaps premature.

Today will start much as yesterday, that is largely dry, with plenty of cloud. Where the sky clears during the day to let in the sunshine, there will be a price to pay in the shape of overnight chills, causing fog and mist.

South-western England will see the best temperatures, with mild air pushing the mercury up to 52F (11C). Elsewhere expect anything from 45F (7C) over much of Scotland, to 50F (10C) in the South East.

As ever it is the jet stream that is dictating events. It is currently far away to our north but, as the first full working week of the year gets under way, it will drop a little toward us, allowing low pressure, and hence rain, into parts of Scotland.

Predictions of a white-out this weekend may have proved false, but the problem may have been one of timing. For in the Arctic a phenomenon known as sudden stratospheric warming is currently taking place. It has the effect of raising temperatures in the high altitudes, which then translates into lowering them here on the ground.

Last year it was sudden stratospheric warming that triggered the Beast from the East.

So forecasts for the second half of January make for gloomy reading – unless you like being snowed in, and are not in one of those 25million UK homes that a parliamentary report has suggested need better insulation.