A disruptive no deal is already off the table
For the Remain brigade, the demand to take no deal “off the table” is simply a cover for their attempt to stop Brexit itself, without the bother of toppling a seemingly untoppleable Theresa May.
They must know that it is not in Mrs May’s gift to pursue Brexit while ruling out no deal. The only thing the UK can do unilaterally is revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit altogether – which is, of course, precisely what the Conservative and Labour Remainers want to do but are too cowardly to actually spell out as the Lib Dems have done, for fear of sharing their pitiful fate in the next general election.
Paul Hardy, the Brexit director at the law firm DLA Piper, confirmed this last week: “The EU has to agree to no deal being taken off the table. If a deal with the EU cannot be agreed by March 29, or later if the deadline is extended, no deal is very much on the table.” Indeed, according to Mr Hardy, Mrs May’s historic defeat makes a no-deal Brexit more likely.
And MPs must realise this. Just as the EU insists that it will not break its four freedoms to accommodate the UK, we cannot accept any deal that hands Northern Ireland over to Brussels. If the Prime Minister’s deal is the only one on offer, then we have just two choices left: remain in the EU, thereby reneging on the Labour and Conservative manifesto promises of the 2017 election to honour the referendum result, or leave without a deal.
But what would a no-deal Brexit look like? Despite reports of Philip Hammond’s efforts to prevent no-deal planning just to be able to cite lack of preparation as a reason not to leave on those terms (how recklessly irresponsible), work has been under way to mitigate the shocks of exiting without a Withdrawal Agreement.
The chief executive of Calais port, for example, surprised his BBC Radio 4 host recently by declaring the port would be ready for no deal. The EU Commission, meanwhile, released a series of proposals before Christmas intended to limit no-deal disruption in areas such as air travel. Progress has been made on citizens’ rights, too. The UK and Switzerland reached an agreement in December, while the French Parliament is expected to guarantee such rights in the event of a no-deal Brexit, contingent on reciprocity.
Simon Stevens, the head of NHS England, has also dispelled the scare stories around shortages of medicine and staff (about 5 per cent of whom come from the EU, while a larger percentage come from the rest of the world).
I should add that, of all the doomsday scenarios doing the rounds, the claim that there may be a shortage of medicine is by far the most astonishing. I’m no admirer of the EU, but even I don’t believe it would be so vindictive as to prevent us from importing drugs in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
There is a long way to go, of course. But, in a sense, no deal has already been taken off the table by putting these mini deals or contingency measures in place.
Der Spiegel’s Peter Muller had the following advice for the EU last week: “Instead of continuing to run after the Brits in the hope they might give their blessing to a deal after all, Europeans should just allow a hard Brexit to come to pass and focus their energies on preparing for the fallout.”
Britain must do the same.