Brexit Party beats Tories in general election poll

Farage predicted to win more votes than Conservatives and gain 49 seats in Commons

THE Brexit Party has overtaken the Conservatives in national polling for the first time, with Nigel Farage predicted to win 49 seats in a general election, a bombshell poll reveals.

A ComRes survey found that if a general election campaign led by Theresa May took place now, it would put the Tories on course for their worst result in history – apparently confirming the fears of Conservative MPs and activists in uproar over the Prime Minister’s handling of Brexit.

Labour would become the largest party by a margin of 137 seats, allowing Jeremy Corbyn to lead a minority government as the Tories fell to third place in terms of vote share.

Brandon Lewis, the party chairman, Penny Mordaunt, the Defence Secretary, and Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, would be among 46 Tories to lose their seats to the Brexit Party, just one month after its launch, according to predictions based on the poll commissioned by Brexit Express. Boris Johnson, Iain Duncan Smith and Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 committee, would be ousted by Labour, with the Tories retaining support from less than half of those who voted for them in 2017.

The poll found that the Conservatives would fall to fourth place in the European Parliament elections on May 23, with the Brexit Party gaining the highest share.

The survey is likely to be seized on by the growing numbers of Tory MPs publicly calling for Mrs May to stand down.

Brexit Express is a campaign group run by Jeremy Hosking, a major Tory

donor who has now given £200,000 to Mr Farage’s party.

Andrew Hawkins, the chairman of ComRes, described the poll as a “disaster”, adding: “If the Conservative leadership contenders are not careful, there will be no party for them to lead.”

It came as more than 400 Tory association chairmen, councillors, donors and activists accuse Mrs May and her advisers of “stick[ing] their fingers in their ears”. In a letter to The Sunday Telegraph they warn that if Mrs May cannot deliver a clean exit, MPs must replace her urgently or “risk disaster”.

If Mrs May was replaced by Mr Johnson, the Tories would recover seven points in a general election to become virtually neck-and-neck with Labour, while the Brexit Party’s current support would be cut in half, says the poll.

On Thursday the Prime Minister will meet the 1922 Committee executive following its demand for her to set an exit date. Writing on these pages, Sir Bernard Jenkin, a member of the executive, states that Mrs May has “written the script” for the Brexit Party.

In an interview with this newspaper Mr Farage predicts that the number of paid-up supporters of the Brexit Party will outstrip the Conservatives’ 124,000 members by May 23.

The ComRes poll also put the Conservatives on 13 per cent in the European elections, with the Brexit Party on 27 and Labour on 25.

In a general election the Tories would achieve 19 per cent, with the Brexit Party on 20 and Labour on 27 – the lowest Conservative share in any opinion poll since January 1995. If such a situation played out, the result would beat the Tories’ 29 per cent share in 1832 to become the party’s worst showing in history. Analysis by Electoral Calculus predicted the Tories would lose 139 Commons seats, with 46 lost to the Brexit Party. Labour would lose three seats to Mr Farage’s party.

The survey of 2,034 adults on Thursday also found that among 2017 Conservative voters the most acceptable Brexit outcome was leaving without a deal on World Trade Organisation terms (63 per cent). Mrs May’s deal gained 50 per cent support among Tory voters. Overall, 53 per cent agreed that Mrs May should “accept that she cannot deliver Brexit and step down now”, while 25 per cent disagreed.

Tomorrow, the Tories and Labour

‘If the Conservative leadership contenders are not careful, there will be no party for them to lead’

will resume talks over a Brexit deal, with government sources suggesting ministers will ask the EU about changes to the political declaration, to accommodate Mr Corbyn’s demand to enshrine proposals for a customs union.

Yesterday, a database showing Tory rebels who voted against Mrs May’s deal was removed from a party website after senior MPs including Mr Duncan Smith reacted with fury. Brexiteers suggested it incited activists to deselect MPs who opposed the deal. The database was later replaced with a link to the official Commons voting record.

An ally of Mrs May said: “The Prime Minister has done everything conceivable to deliver Brexit – and even announced she would step down after phase one of talks in order to get a deal over the line.

“She remains focused on delivering Brexit as soon as possible.”