‘Seasonal’ strain could return every winter

COVID-19 may well become a seasonal virus returning each winter, scientists have said.

Seven coronaviruses have infected humans, with most causing cold-like symptoms.

So far around 20 per cent of confirmed cases of the new disease have been classed as severe or critical, with a death rate of about two per cent.

Experts believe it is likely that Covid-19 will become seasonal, meaning it may taper off over spring but return in the winter. Prof John Oxford, a virologist from Queen Mary University of London, said: “It’s a question of crystal ball-gazing but if you look at other members of the coronavirus family, that are respiratory viruses, and we’ve known about them for the last 50 years or more, they’re seasonal.

“They’re just like the common cold. There’s probably a few thousand people infected with them … in England.

“Whether Covid-19 will fit into that pattern or not, we will just have to wait and see, but my guess is it will.”

If the virus is seasonal, we will begin to see “the figures drop off ”, he said. That, coupled with handwashing and social distancing, including refraining from kissing or hugging, would buy time to develop antiviral drugs, which “can be delivered quite quickly”.

Dr Michael Skinner, a reader in virology at Imperial College London, warned not to “rule out a second wave”.

“It could well slow down over the summer but I think most people anticipate that it’s likely that it will come back as a second wave,” he said.

“The expectation is it would just eventually – and this could take a number of years – settle down, much like the ones we regard as normal respiratory infections.”